954
FXUS66 KLOX 280550
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
27/732 PM.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
SHAPE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MEANDERS WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
27/807 PM.
***UPDATE***
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
SLOW WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. IN ADDITION, THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK
EACH DAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS PULLING CLOSER TO THE COAST EACH
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING PERIOD. BY MIDWEEK LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SOME OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS. AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL WARM INTO THE 90S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL AREAS WILL
ALSO SLOWLY WARM, BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
27/210 PM.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE
GFS, INDICATE ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING. THE
DISAGREEMENTS BECOME EVEN GREATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
SO CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY SO THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ALSO OF NOTE OVER NEXT WEEKEND IS THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
WEST OVER THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF 30N. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY MONSOON CONDITIONS
SO IT IS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, BUT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASING
SOUTH SWELLS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
28/0550Z.
AT 0506Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF
21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, AND KVNY WHERE THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR AT KPRB AND KSBA
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND A 40% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CIGS (MINIMUM
CIG HEIGHT) BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z AT KBUR AND KVNY. FOR KSBA, CIGS
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z, BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL
TIME.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 300 FT. ARRIVAL OF CIGS AT KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 90 MINUTES. FOR ALL SITES, DISSIPATION OF CIGS MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND ARRIVAL TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY BE AS EARLY
AS 06Z OR AS LATE AS 08Z. DISSIPATION MAY BE 16Z TO 20Z. ARRIVAL
TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/-
300 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR LIFR
TO IFR CIGS (MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT) BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.
MARINE
27/843 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEASONABLY SMALL (BUT CHOPPY) SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, THEN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 5-8 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN SCA WINDS
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON,
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL REACH SCA DURING THE EVENINGS THOUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF WINDS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH ACROSS THE CHANNEL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A A 30% CHANCE OF LOW- END GALES
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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