886
FXUS66 KLOX 300411
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/835 PM.
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS, ALL
COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WILL RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AND SOME LOWER VALLEY AREAS.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AT SOME BEACHES.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/908 PM.
---TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS, ALL
COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA...SANTA BARBARA...AND SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES---
A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS THAT MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS, BOATS, AND COASTAL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DAMAGE AT THE
HARBORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURGING WATER IN AND OUT OF HARBORS CAN
CAUSE BOATS AND DOCKS TO DETACH FROM STRUCTURES. PORT SAN LUIS AND
MORRO BAY WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THESE IMPACTS,
HOWEVER OTHER LOCATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACTS INCLUDING COASTAL FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE LOCATED IN THIS COASTAL AREA, MOVE OFF THE BEACH AND
OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS. DO NOT GO TO THE COAST TO WATCH THE
TSUNAMI. BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS.
***UPDATE***
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. MOST MAX TEMPS WARMED 1 TO 3
DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE SLOW
TO FORM TONIGHT AND CURRENTLY ARE ONLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT SINCE THE MARINE
LAYER IS ONLY 700 FT DEEP THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH VLY PENETRATION.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE CURRENT BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BC COAST THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MARINE LAYER LOWERED SLIGHTLY
LAST NIGHT WHICH PREVENTED LOW CLOUDS FROM REACHING SOME OF THE
VALLEYS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SLIGHT LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THEN
REMAINING STEADY AT AROUND 1000-1500 FEET DEEP THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
THIS DEPTH LOW CLOUDS WILL SNEAK INTO PARTS OF THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY BUT OTHERWISE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BEFORE NOON.
THE ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS, POSSIBLY
REACHING 35-45 MPH IN THE STRONGER AREAS AROUND REFUGIO.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
29/155 PM.
VERY MINIMAL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES OR OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN
REMAINS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS TEMPERATURES WITH A
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC FROM MEXICO BUT STAY WELL SOUTH
OF 30N SO NO CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP LOCALLY BUT POSSIBLY AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SWELLS CREATING INCREASED SURF AND RIPS.
LOOKING A BIT PAST THE 7 DAY FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WARMING LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE LONG-STANDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BC COAST AND TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO
EXPAND WEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
29/1847Z.
AT 1808Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3900 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE
OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KPRB, HOWEVER THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
FOR LIFR TO IFR CIGS AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN KBUR AND KVNY TAFS WHERE THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AFTER 06Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS THROUGH 02Z, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL TIMES OF CIGS TONIGHT (+/-
3 HRS), HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. MINIMUM CIG
HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR NO LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, AND A 30% CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) AT KOXR AND KCMA. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
OF LIFR-IFR CONDS AT KSBA AFTER 06Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 02Z, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
ARRIVAL OF CIGS TONIGHT MAY BE AS EARLY AS 02Z OR AS LATE AS 10Z.
CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 300 FT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO
LOW CLOUDS AFTER 00Z THROUGH 18Z WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF BKN005-008
CONDS AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
29/120 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15%) OF GALES AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS
ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET
THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES THAT
SCA WINDS REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL THROUGH THURSDAY
(MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY).
LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND PT DUME AND THROUGH THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LEWIS/LUND
SYNOPSIS...COHEN/MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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