767
FXUS66 KLOX 301018
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
318 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/835 PM.
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS, ALL
COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
WILL RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AND SOME LOWER VALLEY AREAS.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AT SOME BEACHES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
30/253 AM.
---TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS, ALL
COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA...SANTA BARBARA...AND SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES---
A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS THAT MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS, BOATS, AND COASTAL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DAMAGE AT THE
HARBORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURGING WATER IN AND OUT OF HARBORS CAN
CAUSE BOATS AND DOCKS TO DETACH FROM STRUCTURES. PORT SAN LUIS AND
MORRO BAY WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THESE IMPACTS,
HOWEVER OTHER LOCATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACTS INCLUDING COASTAL FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE LOCATED IN THIS COASTAL AREA, MOVE OFF THE BEACH AND
OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS. DO NOT GO TO THE COAST TO WATCH THE
TSUNAMI. BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS.
******************************************************************
VERY STATIC AND BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH SRN CA UNDER
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER NRN MEXICO. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE
ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO EAST AND NORTH. IT WILL VARY DIURNALLY AND
WILL BE WEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MARINE LAYER IS UNDER 1000 FT DEEP AND THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTS. THERE WILL
ONLY BE LIMITED VLY PENETRATION SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WILL FILL WITH STRATUS EVERY
NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES, THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
FOR THE REST OF COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VLYS. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRI.
THESE MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS.
THE ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS, POSSIBLY
REACHING 35-45 MPH IN THE STRONGER AREAS AROUND REFUGIO.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
30/317 AM.
THE STATIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7.
THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER HIGH DO JOSTLE AROUND SOMEWHAT BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. AT THE SFC THE E/W GRADS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL. THE N/S WILL FLUCTUATE SOME WITH A
PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE PUSH FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE THOSE IN THE SHORT TERM AT
AGAIN WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY CHANGE. SOME
AREAS MAY WARM ON MONDAY DUE TO THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PUSH.
NIGHT THOUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
AGAIN BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND SANTA YNEZ VLY.
LOOKING A BIT PAST THE 7 DAY FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WARMING LATER NEXT WEEK (THE 6TH TO THE 8TH) AS THE
LONG- STANDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BC COAST AND TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO EXPAND WEST INTO CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
30/0618Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3900 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE
OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KPRB 12Z-16Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN KBUR AND KVNY TAFS WITH JUST A 20% CHANCE OF
IFR 12Z-16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBA WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW
CLOUDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO LOW
CLOUDS AT KOXR AND KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 09Z OR AS LATE AS 12Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL BE UNDER KTS.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF OVC006
CONDS 12Z-16Z.
MARINE
30/131 AM.
A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS THAT MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS, BOATS, AND COASTAL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DAMAGE AT THE
HARBORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURGING WATER IN AND OUT OF HARBORS CAN
CAUSE BOATS AND DOCKS TO DETACH FROM STRUCTURES. IF YOU ARE
LOCATED IN THIS COASTAL AREA, MOVE OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF
HARBORS AND MARINAS. DO NOT GO TO THE COAST TO WATCH THE TSUNAMI.
BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS
PORT SAN LUIS INCLUDING AVILA BEACH WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
FOR THESE IMPACTS, AND VERY ISOLATED LOW-END TSUNAMI WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA. THIS INCLUDES LOW TO
MODERATE INUNDATION AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE PORT
SAN LUIS AREA INCLUDING AVILA BEACH.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL AND WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES THAT SCA WINDS REACH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY
AROUND PT DUME AND THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE LOS
ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LUND/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...COHEN/MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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