348
FXUS66 KLOX 301657
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
957 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/948 AM.
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. SEE LAXSPSLOX FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100 IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND DESERTS. SEASONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
30/948 AM.
***UPDATE***
SMALL UPDATE TO SKY AND WEATHER TO BETWEEN REFLECT THE CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SET UP. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
VERY STATIC AND BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH SRN CA UNDER
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER NRN MEXICO. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE
ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO EAST AND NORTH. IT WILL VARY DIURNALLY AND
WILL BE WEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MARINE LAYER IS UNDER 1000 FT DEEP AND THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTS. THERE WILL
ONLY BE LIMITED VLY PENETRATION SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WILL FILL WITH STRATUS EVERY
NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES, THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
FOR THE REST OF COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VLYS. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRI.
THESE MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS.
THE ONLY MINOR WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS, POSSIBLY
REACHING 35-45 MPH IN THE STRONGER AREAS AROUND REFUGIO.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
30/317 AM.
THE STATIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7.
THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER HIGH DO JOSTLE AROUND SOMEWHAT BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. AT THE SFC THE E/W GRADS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL. THE N/S WILL FLUCTUATE SOME WITH A
PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE PUSH FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE THOSE IN THE SHORT TERM AT
AGAIN WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY CHANGE. SOME
AREAS MAY WARM ON MONDAY DUE TO THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PUSH.
NIGHT THOUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
AGAIN BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND SANTA YNEZ VLY.
LOOKING A BIT PAST THE 7 DAY FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WARMING LATER NEXT WEEK (THE 6TH TO THE 8TH) AS THE
LONG- STANDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BC COAST AND TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST FINALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO EXPAND WEST INTO CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
30/1657Z.
AT 1615Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 110 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
22 C.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KBUR,
KVNY, KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR KSBA AND KPRB, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
10Z-16Z.
FOR OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS AS TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
30/755 AM.
A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS THAT MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS, BOATS, AND COASTAL STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
DAMAGE AT THE HARBORS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURGING WATER IN AND OUT
OF HARBORS CAN CAUSE BOATS AND DOCKS TO DETACH FROM STRUCTURES. IF
YOU ARE LOCATED IN THIS COASTAL AREA, MOVE OFF THE BEACH AND OUT
OF HARBORS AND MARINAS. DO NOT GO TO THE COAST TO WATCH THE
TSUNAMI. BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS
PORT SAN LUIS INCLUDING AVILA BEACH WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
FOR THESE IMPACTS, AND VERY ISOLATED LOW-END TSUNAMI WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA. THIS INCLUDES LOW TO
MODERATE INUNDATION AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE PORT
SAN LUIS AREA INCLUDING AVILA BEACH.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL AND WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES THAT SCA WINDS REACH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY
AROUND PT DUME AND THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE LOS
ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...LUND/SCHOENFELD/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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