025
FXUS66 KLOX 310905
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/152 PM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 100
IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND DESERTS. SEASONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
30/842 PM.
***UPDATE***
TSUNAMI ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED AS TIDE GAUGES START TO
NORMALIZE. HOWEVER, LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE TSUNAMI ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG
CURRENTS AND CHANGING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH HELPED BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NEAR THE COASTS TO THE NORTH, 70S NEAR
SOUTHERN COASTS, AND 80S TO 90S FOR THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH COAST TO
VALLEY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ONGOING, AND GUSTY NORTH
SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MOST OF THE ATTENTION TODAY HAS BEEN ON THE ONGOING TSUNAMI,
WHICH IS STILL SHOWING ITSELF ON OUR TIDE GAUGES BUT RESULTING IN
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACT. THE TSUNAMI SHORT-DURATION
TIDAL SWINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE. ALL THE TSUNAMI ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED SOON, IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY.
THE VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL JULY,
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL STAY PUT AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY,
EXCEPT A BRIEF WOBBLE INTO ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW NORMAL AND A TYPICAL COASTAL MARINE LAYER. OVER THE
WEEKEND, VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES
TO GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL, WHICH INCLUDES HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES
IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND DESERTS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WHERE MODERATE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL FORM EACH EVENING, WITH
TONIGHT LIKELY THE STRONGEST OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS (WIND ADVISORY
POSTED).
LASTLY, SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND ON THE CENTRAL COAST.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
30/209 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. ENSEMBLE PROJECTIONS ARE
PRETTY LOCKED FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO, TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
WESTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME. AS A
RESULT, LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP NEXT WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE PEAK IS LOOKING TO BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS
OUT SO STAY TUNED ON MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION
31/0904Z.
AT 0555Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF AND
KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITE.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO CIG AT KOXR, KCMA,
KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB. IF LOW CLOUDS DO ARRIVE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY +/-2 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NO LOW
CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS LATE AS 14Z. VFR TRANSITION
WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN HOUR OF FCST. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
30/736 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING
WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING
WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TSUNAMI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG CURRENTS LIKELY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/KITTELL
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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