445
FXUS66 KLOX 311017
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
317 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/214 AM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS.
SEASONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
31/231 AM.
THE FAIRLY STATIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH WEAK TROFFING OVER THE STATE AND AN UPPER HIGH TO THE
SE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NW AND BY SATURDAY IT
WILL LIKELY SIT OVER SRN AZ. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE HGTS FROM 591 DAM TO 595 DAM BY SATURDAY. THERE
WILL ONLY BE MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, LACK OF AN EDDY AND THE
SQUISHING EFFECT OF THE INCREASING HGTS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT OF THE VLYS, SAVE FOR THE SANTA YNEZ. LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST BUT WILL NOT FORM OVER THE
LA/VTA COASTS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK SUNDOWNERS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH CST CLOUD FREE.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME WARMING EACH DAY AS THE UPPER ASSERTS
ITSELF. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT
WARMING ACROSS THE CSTS VLYS BUT THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE
NOTICEABLE WARMING. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL COME IN CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WHERE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL FORM EACH EVENING.
THE INCREASING HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER LOW ENOUGH BY
SATURDAY THAT SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
31/257 AM.
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE SATURDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN ANY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER TROF ENTERS AND PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND A REDUCTION IN
UPPER HGTS. LOOK FOR 1 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY AS A
RESULT.
THE UPPER HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO THE EAST AND NORTH.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE CSTS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE VLY. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP, ESP
THE ANTELOPE VLY WHERE STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ADD TO THE WARMING.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NOTICEABLE
WARM UP ON NEXT WEEK'S THU AND FRI WITH A LESSER AMOUNT CALLING
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
AVIATION
31/1011Z.
AROUND 0810Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 22 DEGREES CELSIUS. THERE WAS ANOTHER INVERSION
ABOVE UP TO AROUND 3600 FEET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR VALLEY AND DESERT
TERMINALS, OTHERWISE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS.
KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY LIKELY IFR CATEGORY) SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z, AND COULD LINGER UNTIL 17Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z FRIDAY. A
RETURN OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 03Z
FRIDAY, OR AS LATE AS 12Z FRIDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
MARINE
31/311 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR WINDS RELATIVE TO SEAS.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS,
THERE IS A LIKELY TO IMMINENT (60-80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL AND OUT 10 NM
OFFSHORE, MARGINAL SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH
(30-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS MONDAY, MAINLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TSUNAMI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. STRONG CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR HARBOR ENTRANCES AT TIMES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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