308
FXUS66 KLOX 311653
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
953 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
SYNOPSIS
31/214 AM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS.
SEASONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
31/231 AM.
THE FAIRLY STATIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH WEAK TROFFING OVER THE STATE AND AN UPPER HIGH TO THE
SE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NW AND BY SATURDAY IT
WILL LIKELY SIT OVER SRN AZ. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE HGTS FROM 591 DAM TO 595 DAM BY SATURDAY. THERE
WILL ONLY BE MDT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE NORTH. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTS. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, LACK OF AN EDDY AND THE
SQUISHING EFFECT OF THE INCREASING HGTS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT OF THE VLYS, SAVE FOR THE SANTA YNEZ. LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST BUT WILL NOT FORM OVER THE
LA/VTA COASTS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK SUNDOWNERS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH CST CLOUD FREE.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME WARMING EACH DAY AS THE UPPER ASSERTS
ITSELF. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT
WARMING ACROSS THE CSTS VLYS BUT THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE
NOTICEABLE WARMING. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL COME IN CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WHERE SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL FORM EACH EVENING.
THE INCREASING HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER LOW ENOUGH BY
SATURDAY THAT SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
31/257 AM.
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE SATURDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN ANY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER TROF ENTERS AND PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND A REDUCTION IN
UPPER HGTS. LOOK FOR 1 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY AS A
RESULT.
THE UPPER HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO THE EAST AND NORTH.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE CSTS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE VLY. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP, ESP
THE ANTELOPE VLY WHERE STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ADD TO THE WARMING.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NOTICEABLE
WARM UP ON NEXT WEEK'S THU AND FRI WITH A LESSER AMOUNT CALLING
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
AVIATION
31/1651Z.
AT 16Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AT KPMD KWJF WITH
TYPICALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND CEILINGS LOWERING 100-300
FEET TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING PRESENCE, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, AND TIMING AT KPRB KSBP KSMX. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CEILING PRESENCE AND DETAILS FOR ALL OTHER SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEING VFR, BUT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS 18-24Z TODAY,
AND 08-16Z ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF CEILINGS WILL FORM AND
ON TIMING IF THEY DO. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THAT FORM WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
08-16Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
31/933 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS BEING DOMINANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRENGTHENING A LITTLE EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS A RESULT, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL BE RISING EVERYWHERE EACH DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS, BUT UNSURE ON IF IT
WILL COVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT AN SCA. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ALL OTHER WATERS SEEING TYPICAL SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM GIL, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
WHILE ALL TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATEMENTS WERE CANCELED ON WEDNESDAY,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS THAT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ABNORMALLY
STRONG CURRENTS NEARSHORE INCLUDING INSIDE HARBORS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSE FOG
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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