161
FXUS66 KLOX 312049
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/107 PM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND DAILY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOR COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID
90S IN THE VALLEYS. SEASONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
31/132 PM.
VERY FEW DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LONG-STANDING TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE PAC NW,
PREVENTING THE USUAL INCURSION OF HOT DESERT AIR MASSES FROM
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS
AROUND 1500 FEET FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
MEXICO BORDER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THAT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SO MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH
SATURDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF TODAY IN MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND EVENING SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH DOES START TO WEAKEN WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA AND BRING SOME WARMING TO INLAND
AREAS, WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP WARM TEMPS A BIT.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
31/147 PM.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AGAIN RETREATS TO THE EAST WITH SOME INDICATIONS FOR A
STRENGTHENING EDDY CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE AND SOUTHERN
LA COUNTIES. THAT PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE THE
WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY RELEASES ITS GRIP AND THE RIDGE OVER AZ
EXPANDS FARTHER WEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERITY OF
THE HEAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT AN IMPACTFUL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK THAT POSSIBLY COULD
LAST WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR A RETURN OF MONSOON
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
BEGINNING AROUND AUG 11.
AVIATION
31/1651Z.
AT 16Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AT KPMD KWJF WITH
TYPICALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND CEILINGS LOWERING 100-300
FEET TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING PRESENCE, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, AND TIMING AT KPRB KSBP KSMX. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CEILING PRESENCE AND DETAILS FOR ALL OTHER SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEING VFR, BUT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS 18-24Z TODAY,
AND 08-16Z ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF CEILINGS WILL FORM AND
ON TIMING IF THEY DO. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THAT FORM WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
08-16Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
31/135 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS BEING DOMINANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRENGTHENING A LITTLE EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS A RESULT, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL BE RISING EVERYWHERE EACH DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS, BUT UNSURE ON IF IT
WILL COVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT AN SCA. CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER WATERS SEEING
TYPICAL SUB- SCA LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM GIL, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, WILL
GENERATE A 12 SECOND SOUTH SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
WHILE ALL TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATEMENTS WERE CANCELED ON WEDNESDAY,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS THAT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ABNORMALLY
STRONG CURRENTS NEARSHORE INCLUDING INSIDE HARBORS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSE FOG
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
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