066
FXUS66 KLOX 010345
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/814 PM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND MID 80S
TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS. SEASONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
31/844 PM.
***UPDATE***
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS KEPT COASTAL AREAS COOL TODAY, AND INTERIOR
AREAS TRENDED WARMER WITH HOTTER VALLEYS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 100. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ALSO WAS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK FURTHER,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE FOG NEAR THE COASTS,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE STARTED ALONG
WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE, AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH. BETTER
CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
VERY FEW DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LONG-STANDING TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE PAC NW,
PREVENTING THE USUAL INCURSION OF HOT DESERT AIR MASSES FROM
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS
AROUND 1500 FEET FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
MEXICO BORDER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THAT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SO MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH
SATURDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF TODAY IN MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND EVENING SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH DOES START TO WEAKEN WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA AND BRING SOME WARMING TO INLAND
AREAS, WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP WARM TEMPS A BIT.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
31/147 PM.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AGAIN RETREATS TO THE EAST WITH SOME INDICATIONS FOR A
STRENGTHENING EDDY CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE AND SOUTHERN
LA COUNTIES. THAT PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE THE
WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY RELEASES ITS GRIP AND THE RIDGE OVER AZ
EXPANDS FARTHER WEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERITY OF
THE HEAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT AN IMPACTFUL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK THAT POSSIBLY COULD
LAST WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR A RETURN OF MONSOON
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
BEGINNING AROUND AUG 11.
AVIATION
01/0243Z.
AT 00Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AT KPMD AND KWJF
WITH TYPICALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND CEILINGS LOWERING, LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT HEIGHTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
PRESENCE, FLIGHT CATEGORIES, AND TIMING AT KPRB, KSBP, AND KSMX.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING PRESENCE AND DETAILS FOR ALL OTHER
SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT THERE
ARE CHANCES FOR IFR FROM 08-16Z ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF
CEILINGS WILL FORM AND ON TIMING IF THEY DO. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT FORM WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
10-16Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
31/814 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS BEING DOMINANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRENGTHENING A LITTLE EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS A RESULT, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL BE RISING EVERYWHERE EACH DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS, BUT UNSURE ON IF IT
WILL COVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT AN SCA. CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER WATERS SEEING
TYPICAL SUB- SCA LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM GIL, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, WILL
GENERATE A 12 SECOND SOUTH SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
WHILE ALL TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATEMENTS WERE CANCELED ON WEDNESDAY,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS THAT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ABNORMALLY
STRONG CURRENTS NEARSHORE INCLUDING INSIDE HARBORS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSE FOG
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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