119
FXUS66 KLOX 011012
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
01/1252 AM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS. SEASONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
01/251 AM.
VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DRY SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A BROAD TROF TO THE NW AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ. AT
THE SFC THERE WILL BE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL DECREASE EACH DAY AND MAY SWITCH TO
WEAKLY OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH HGTS (592 DAM TO 595 DAM) WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
SMOOSHED DOWN TO ABOUT A 1000 FT. NO EDDY IS FORECAST AND THIS
ALONG WITH THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE STRATUS OUT OF
THE VLYS (SAVE FOR THE SANTA YNEZ AND THE PASO ROBLES AREA)LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REFORM ACROSS THE COASTS
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. WITHOUT AN EDDY OR STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALL
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S
AT THE BEACHES, LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AREA, MID
70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CSTS. THE VLYS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
NO BIG WIND ISSUES. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUNDOWNERS EACH NIGHT AND
THE TYPICAL BREEZY AFTERNOONS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
01/310 AM.
THE TROF TO THE NW AND UPPER HIGH TO THE SE DO BATTLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER TROF ASSERTS ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. VLY TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. DESPITE THE SMALL CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUD REGIME.
ON WED AND THU THE UPPER HIGH BATTLES BACK. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL REDUCTION IN THE LOW
CLOUD PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION MAY DELAY
CLEARING AT A FEW BEACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 2 TO 4
DEGREES OF WARMING ON WED AND 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON THU.
THIS WOULD BRING THE VLY TEMPS UP TO THE 90S WITH A FEW 100 AND
101 DEGREE READINGS WITH THE ANTELOPE VLY SEEING 103 TO 104
DEGREES. QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MAX TEMPS REACHING
HIGHER VALUES 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAT THE CURRENT FCST.
AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR A RETURN OF MONSOON
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
BEGINNING AROUND AUG 11.
AVIATION
01/0648Z.
AT 0510Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AT KPMD AND KWJF.
VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WITH ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 13Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS WITH FLIGHT CAT
CHANGE TIMING POSSIBLY OFF BY +/- 90 MINUTES AND CIG HGT +/- 300
FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 08Z
OR AS LATE AS 11Z. VFR TRANSITION COULD BE AS LATE AS 1730Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT FORM WILL STAY UNDER 8
KNOTS.
KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 3SM BR OVC005 CONDS FROM 13Z-16Z.
MARINE
31/814 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS BEING DOMINANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRENGTHENING A LITTLE EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-END GALES FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS A RESULT, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL BE RISING EVERYWHERE EACH DAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WILL ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS, BUT UNSURE ON IF IT
WILL COVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT AN SCA. CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER WATERS SEEING
TYPICAL SUB- SCA LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM GIL, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, WILL
GENERATE A 12 SECOND SOUTH SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
WHILE ALL TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATEMENTS WERE CANCELED ON WEDNESDAY,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS THAT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ABNORMALLY
STRONG CURRENTS NEARSHORE INCLUDING INSIDE HARBORS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSE FOG
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...KITTELL/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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