382
FXUS66 KLOX 020601
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1101 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
01/844 PM.
FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
COASTS AND MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS. SEASONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
01/844 PM.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON RISE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
LATEST ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHRINKING TO
AROUND 700 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN THIS EVENING. WITH A LOWERING
AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THAT COULD RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO LOCALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER
MILE. INTERIOR AREAS COULD SEE 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE (WARMEST
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY). LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
SOME SUB-ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING, MAINLY FOCUSED FROM GAVIOTA TO SAN MARCOS
PASS. BY SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECTING SUNDOWNER WIND ACTIVITY TO BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE
SUNDAY SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT, THERE WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO OF NOTE, THE MADRE FIRE ALONG HIGHWAY 166 IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SANTA BARBARA/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BORDER HAS GROWN TO
5000 ACRES THIS EVENING, AND EXHIBITED VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH FIRE
BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EVEN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, LOOKING FOR THE VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH
TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WIND INFLUENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE AND RIDGETOP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
01/1033 AM.
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY, HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE WEST INTO CALIFORNIA. MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM UP
AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS
AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
BE INCREASING THE HEAT RISK FACTORS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS
LIKELY EXCEED 105 IN THE THE WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS WITH A 10-20
PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING 110. HIGHS IN DOWNTOWN LA ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST DAY LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ACROSS THE AV HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHING 110. RECORDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE QUITE HIGH BUT COULD BE MET OR EXCEEDED IF
THE HIGHER END FORECASTS ARE REALIZED. WILL START TO EVALUATE THE
NEED TO FOR ANY HEAT HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PREPARING NOW
FOR VERY HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED.
THERE ARE STILL NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR A RETURN OF MONSOON
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
BEGINNING AROUND AUG 11.
AVIATION
02/0600Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AT KPMD AND
KWJF.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF 2 TO 3 HOURS OF SCT CONDS AT KOXR. VFR TRANSITION
MAY BE OFF BY 1 HOUR FOR KCMA, KSMX AND KSBP AND 2 HOURS FOR KSBA,
KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
OVC004 CIGS 12Z-16Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
ARRIVING AS LATE AS 19Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THAT FORM WILL STAY UNDER 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF OVC004
CONDS 13Z-16Z.
MARINE
01/828 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS BEING DOMINANT WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK, PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING GALE STRENGTH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, INCREASING TO A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH WILL BE
POSTED AS A RESULT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHORT PERIOD SEAS RISING
EVERYWHERE AS A RESULT.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL
ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS, BUT SHOULD BE ONLY OVER A SMALL ENOUGH AREA
TO NOT NEED AN SCA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF NEEDING ONE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM GIL, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, WILL
GENERATE A 12 SECOND SOUTH SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSE FOG
EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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