499
FXUS66 KLOX 300410
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/610 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A VERY
WARM LABOR DAY WEEKEND, WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE EAST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
29/908 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE REGION IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST. THOSE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS WELL, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH (LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES) IS MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUDS.
SOME JUST-UNDER-ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE AFFECTING SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE LA COUNTY INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE
NOW. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
TODAY WAS A WARM DAY TODAY OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, WITH
MOST SITES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE PUSH WE SAW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ALL
PROJECTIONS SHOW NO SUCH PUSH ON SATURDAY, AS THE GENERAL FLOW
TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE. MOST COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME
AS FRIDAY OR A TOUCH COOLER AS A RESULT. OVER VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS HOWEVER, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BUILD AND FORCE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES - A WARMING PRECURSOR
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE GENERAL STORY OF OUR CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES LOOKS GOOD, WITH
THE PEAK HEAT STARTING ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND ON MONDAY
FOR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A FEW
CHANGES ON ON TONIGHT'S SHIFT HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS AS ALL INTERIOR AREAS CHANGE LITTLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ALSO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE EVERYWHERE FROM
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, SO THOSE ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED,
BUT THAT ASPECT CAN BE FIGURED OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL 566 DAM LOW WEST OF OREGON
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE RIDGING
IS BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM A 595 DAM HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND ONSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA, INTRODUCING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT BY TUESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AFTER A CLOUDY START ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING, THE
DAY HAS TURNED MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR CUMULUS BUILD
UP OVER THE LA AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS, UP TO 30-40 MPH,
MAY IMPACT SOME WIND PRONE AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
INCLUDING THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT COASTS, THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR, AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS, BUT WITHOUT THE
MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS EARLIER THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 103 IN PASO ROBLES,
LANCASTER, AND AGOURA HILLS.
MONDAY THE HEAT SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. NO PRODUCT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING, NOR FOR
THE COAST WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP KEEP CONDITIONS
COOLER.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/748 PM.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT IS FAVORED TO PEAK ON
TUESDAY WITH DOWNTOWN LA IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S, BUT THE ADVISORY
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONTINUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED, AS HEIGHTS DROP AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING
TUESDAY WITH ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWATS ABOVE ONE INCH
ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A AROUND
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED
OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OF TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
AVIATION
30/0105Z.
AT 01Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR KSBP AND KSMX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THE SITES REMAIN
CLEAR, HIGHEST AT KSBP. IF LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS. OTHERWISE LIFR TO LOW IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. 10% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR
CONDS AT KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB AFTER 10Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. 10% CHANCE OF LOW CIGS
003-007 AFTER 10Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IF LOW
CLOUDS DO ARRIVE. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6
KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
29/830 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH LABOR DAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS 20-30 KTS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
THROUGH LABOR DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEYOND 20
NM FROM SHORE FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO POINT SAL SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. RELATIVE LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
HOURS.
ASIDE FROM FAIRLY SEASONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOCALIZED NW
WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND 15-20 KTS IN THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, LIGHT
WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 38-342-345-349-371. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONES 88-368>374-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/JLD/RK
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...JLD/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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