053
FXUS66 KLOX 301805
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1105 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
30/909 AM.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK,
GENERALLY PEAKING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY INCLUDING LABOR DAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS TO SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND KEEP A
LOW BUT PRESENT RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
30/910 AM.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
HILLS AND CANYONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
DUE TO A 2 MILLIBAR OFFSHORE TREND IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
SEVERAL PROJECTIONS SHOW EVEN STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE HILLS
AND CANYONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, WITH
GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THIS OFFSHORE WIND PUSH
WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR AND WIND
PRONE FOOTHILLS/CANYONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
TODAY, BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100'S. HEAT
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TODAY. EVEN MORE POPULATED AREAS SUCH AS SAN LUIS OBISPO, ARROYO
GRANDE, AND NIPOMO WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CLIMBING INTO
THE 90S ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITIES, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING UNUSUALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST FOOTHILLS/CANYONS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE WESTERN STATES,
WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND CHANGE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
REGION IS ALSO ON TRACK FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY THE
HOTTEST OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL COAST. CALENDAR DAY RECORDS ARE
REALLY HIGH FOR THIS COMING WEEK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RECORDS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
THAT IS VERY WARM CONSIDERING THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OUR HOTTEST
TIME OF THE YEAR, AND CONSIDERING THE PLETHORA OF OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY, THE RISK FOR
HEAT ILLNESS IS ABNORMALLY HIGH - ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT ARE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE (LIKE THE OLD, YOUNG, HIKERS, AND THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONING). WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LOOKING FOR ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOSTLY
BE CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, AS WELL
AS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES COAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AS THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND
STRENGTHEN.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/748 PM.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT IS FAVORED TO PEAK ON
TUESDAY WITH DOWNTOWN LA IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S, BUT THE ADVISORY
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONTINUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED, AS HEIGHTS DROP AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING
TUESDAY WITH ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWATS ABOVE ONE INCH
ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A AROUND
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED
OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OF TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
AVIATION
30/1804Z.
AT 1738Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AT ANY AFOREMENTIONED SITE.
IF CLOUDS ARRIVE, ARRIVAL TIME MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND MINIMUM
CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FEET. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR
VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM, HIGHEST AT KOXR AND KCMA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT KSBP BETWEEN 07Z AND 18Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF AFTER 06Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE UNTIL
THEN. 40% CHANCE NO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP, BUT IF THEY DO, THERE IS A
15% CHANCE FOR VSBYS 1/2SM-1SM AT TIMES DUE TO SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER. ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT MAY
BE OFF 300 FEET. CLEARING TIME MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
30/909 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 20-30 KT NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS FROM
POINT SAL NORTH TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS CONTINUING THROUGH LABOR
DAY (MONDAY), WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE GUSTS OF
34-38 KTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
REMAINING OUTER WATERS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO MARGINAL
SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU EVENING, BUT CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCA
WINDS ARE FOCUSED AROUND POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND. A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS WILL BE LIKELY EACH MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS LIKELY.
ASIDE FROM FAIRLY SEASONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOCALIZED NW
WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND 15-20 KTS IN THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL, LIGHT
WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH LABOR DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 38-344-345-353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 88-356>358-368>376-378-379-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 341>343-347>349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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