029
FXUS66 KLOX 051038
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
338 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
05/257 AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
05/320 AM.
OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.
STARTING MONDAY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AREA-WIDE AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER WEST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS AND SLOW COOLING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
05/337 AM.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE HIGHS IN SOME
AREAS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
DRIZZLE UP AGAINST THE COASTAL SLOPES AS THE MARINE LAYER REACHES
AT LEAST 3000 FEET.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THE MORE RECENT
SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FAVORING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A VERY SLOW
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEK OF THE 14TH. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE THE MONSOON
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
05/1020Z.
AROUND 07Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AT KLAX. THE
TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
NEAR 23 DEGREES CELSIUS. THERE WAS ANOTHER INVERSION UP TO AROUND
2700 FEET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 01Z
SATURDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT MOST COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z, BUT THERE
IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT SCATTERING OUT OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z AT KSBA AND KOXR. AN EARLY RETURN OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS AS LATE AS 18Z. A RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS, OR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS 01Z
SATURDAY, OR AS LATE AS 07Z. ANY EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. NO
WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
05/331 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SEA FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THEREAFTER.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, A LIKELY-TO-
IMMINENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF GALES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND INTO
THE ANACAPA PASSAGE, NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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