404
FXUS66 KLOX 051803
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1103 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
05/257 AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
05/914 AM.
***UPDATE***
PRETTY QUIET MORNING WEATHER-WISE. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1500
FT DEEP AT KLAX AND VANDENBERG, WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE COAST, MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY/SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY, THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY, AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY LOCATIONS (LIKE PASO ROBLES). A FEW STATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST REPORTING 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN (DRIZZLE)
DUE TO THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY,
WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S (INCLUDING
THE WARMEST VALLEYS), AND HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS, WITH 70S TO LOCALLY 80 AT THE BEACHES.
BESIDES SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS, MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST/SOUTH OF OUR FOUR COUNTY
AREA (SLO TO LA COUNTIES).
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE AND NO UPDATES WERE
NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.
STARTING MONDAY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AREA-WIDE AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER WEST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS AND SLOW COOLING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
05/337 AM.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE HIGHS IN SOME
AREAS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
DRIZZLE UP AGAINST THE COASTAL SLOPES AS THE MARINE LAYER REACHES
AT LEAST 3000 FEET.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THE MORE RECENT
SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FAVORING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A VERY SLOW
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEK OF THE 14TH. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE THE MONSOON
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
05/1802Z.
AT 1716Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR REMAINING TAFS. LEAST CONFIDENT
IN ARRIVAL OF CIGS (+/- 3 HOURS). DEPARTURE TIMES LIKELY WILL BE
ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS AT
KSBA. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF THAT IFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE AT KVNY
& KBUR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE TIMES
OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. FLIGHT CATS COULD BE OFF BY ONE.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS FROM 08Z TO 16Z SAT.
MARINE
05/808 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SEA FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THEREAFTER.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-
HIGH CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THEN THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND INTO THE ANACAPA
PASSAGE, NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SBA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...HALL/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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