464
FXUS66 KLOX 111650
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/939 AM.
A PERIOD OF COOLER, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL
COVER MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
11/949 AM.
***UPDATE***
A DEEP MARINE LAYER CONTINUES THIS MORNING, AROUND 3500 FEET BASED
ON RECENT PILOT REPORTS. COVERAGE AGAIN IS SOMEWHAT SPOTTY, AND
VENTURA AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ARE COMPLETELY CLOUD-
FREE, BUT AS MENTIONED BELOW, THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY AND
UPSLOPE AREAS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
HIGHS BARELY TOUCHING 80, WHICH IS A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL AREAS AGAIN ARE BEING MODERATED BY WARMER
THAN NORMAL SST'S SO THIS LEAVES US WITH AGAIN A VERY UNIFORM AND
UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WHERE COAST AND VALLEYS ARE
BASICALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
NW FLOW ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CREATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF SBA COUNTY AS IT MOVES ASHORE AND THEN SQUIRTS OUT OF
THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
THE TROF WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ON FRIDAY AND ESP SAT WITH A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TAKING ITS PLACE. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. THE INCREASED HGTS
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO CREATE A BETTER MARINE INVERSION AND
THERE SHOULD BE MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTS. DESPITE
THE WARMING MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
11/1209 AM.
THE PREVIOUS ROUGE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY BEEN CAST AWAY AND
NOW BOTH THE EC AND GFS AGREE THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE FOR
SOME VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A COASTAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUD PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S SKIES MAY TURN
PARTLY CLOUDY AS A SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE
NORTH.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY SUN-WED.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MANY CLOUDS ARRIVE OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS
WILL COME CLOSE TO NORMALS BY MID WEEK WITH VLY HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND 80S ACROSS THE COASTS (MID 70S AT THE BEACHES)
BOTH MDLS (AND ESP THE EC) SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
UP FROM THE S ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
11/1118Z.
AT 0649Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER THAT WAS 2500 FT DEEP,
WITH A WEAK INVERSION UP TO 4300 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF
15 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY TAFS DUE TO PATCHY MARINE
LAYER. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY LA COUNTY SITE
THROUGH 18Z, AND A 40% CHANCE FOR KCMA. AT ALL SITES, CIGS MAY
FREQUENTLY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR
KSMX AND KSBP, AND +/- 3 HOURS FOR OTHER SITES. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, AND A 30-40%
CHANCE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AT KPRB, KOXR, KCMA,
KBUR, AND KVNY.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE BKN015-BKN025
CIGS FORM AT SOME POINT THROUGH 18Z. ARRIVAL OF BKN010-BKN020 CIGS
TONIGHT MAY BE ANY TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. 20% CHANCE FOR NO
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN SCT- BKN CONDS. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 8 KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. 20% CHANCE AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHES 8 KTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z FRI.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 15% CHANCE BKN015-BKN025 CIGS FORM
THROUGH 18Z. 30% CHANCE BKN010-BKN020 CIGS ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z FRI. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT- BKN
CONDS.
MARINE
11/835 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) WILL IMPACT
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SUB ADVISORY WINDS
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL RAMP UP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LULLS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL SEE SCA LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL WNW
WINDS (20-25 KTS) ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4 TO 6
FEET EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SEAS WILL BE
SHORT PERIOD AND CHOPPY. CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS ARE LOWER OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE NW. SOME
LOCALIZED NW GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME AND WEST OF
CATALINA TODAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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