768
FXUS66 KLOX 111852
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1152 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/939 AM.
A PERIOD OF COOLER, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL
COVER MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
11/1038 AM.
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND BEHIND THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW WARMING
TREND THIS FOR INLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FOR COASTAL
AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS THE WARM SST'S HAVE
CREATED A WARM BIAS THERE OF 2-4 DEGREES LATELY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. THE STRONG WINDS THERE THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOULD
THEORETICALLY CREATE SOME UPWELLING THAT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN
TO NORMAL BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE,
EVENTUALLY CONFINING ANY STRATUS TO THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT THAT
MAY NOT HAPPEN TIL SAT OR SUN.
THE ONLY OTHER SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH
SUNDOWNER WINDS TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS EVENING AND
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS BUT TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
11/1130 AM.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH IT SO
IMPACTS TO SOCAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND THE PREVIOUS SLOW
WARMING TREND SHOULD STILL CONTINUE.
BY TUE AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS IN
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT THE NEXT HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN. AT THE
SAME TIME THOUGH MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OFF NORTHERN MEXICO. PW'S
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AT LEAST 1.5" BY MID WEEK, WITH ROUGHLY
10% OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING PW'S AS HIGH AS 2" BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
(HIGHEST SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION). THE ADDED MOISTURE COMPLICATES
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BUT ABSENT THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
WARMER VALLEY HIGHS REACHING 105-110 (ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY) AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT AND HINDERS THE USUAL OVERNIGHT COOLING.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD OVER THE NBM. DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVAL, THE HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME COOLING THU/FRI BUT WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
(INCLUDING COAST AND VALLEYS) LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
11/1118Z.
AT 0649Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER THAT WAS 2500 FT DEEP,
WITH A WEAK INVERSION UP TO 4300 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF
15 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY TAFS DUE TO PATCHY MARINE
LAYER. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY LA COUNTY SITE
THROUGH 18Z, AND A 40% CHANCE FOR KCMA. AT ALL SITES, CIGS MAY
FREQUENTLY BOUNCE BETWEEN BKN AND SCT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR
KSMX AND KSBP, AND +/- 3 HOURS FOR OTHER SITES. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, AND A 30-40%
CHANCE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AT KPRB, KOXR, KCMA,
KBUR, AND KVNY.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE BKN015-BKN025
CIGS FORM AT SOME POINT THROUGH 18Z. ARRIVAL OF BKN010-BKN020 CIGS
TONIGHT MAY BE ANY TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. 20% CHANCE FOR NO
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN SCT- BKN CONDS. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 8 KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. 20% CHANCE AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHES 8 KTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z FRI.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 15% CHANCE BKN015-BKN025 CIGS FORM
THROUGH 18Z. 30% CHANCE BKN010-BKN020 CIGS ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z FRI. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT- BKN
CONDS.
MARINE
11/835 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) WILL IMPACT
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SUB ADVISORY WINDS
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL RAMP UP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LULLS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL SEE SCA LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL WNW
WINDS (20-25 KTS) ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 4 TO 6
FEET EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SEAS WILL BE
SHORT PERIOD AND CHOPPY. CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS ARE LOWER OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE NW. SOME
LOCALIZED NW GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME AND WEST OF
CATALINA TODAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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