981
FXUS66 KLOX 122133
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
233 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/208 PM.
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY WARM EACH DAY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST, WITH
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE PEOPLE. HUMIDITIES
AND SHOWER CHANCES RISE FOR THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
12/221 PM.
AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY LEADING TO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING. SOME SUB-ADVISORY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COASTS AND
THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO AROUND 585
DECAMETERS (AT 500 MILLIBARS) WHILE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN CLOSER TO NEUTRAL (AT 12Z). THIS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE
WARM UP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS INLAND OF THE
BEACHES BETWEEN 83 AND 93 DEGREES COMMON. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
ALSO STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND HELP THE LOW CLOUDS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED, WHICH WILL MODERATE ANY WARMING
AFFECTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE DENSE FOG ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. ON MONDAY, SOME MODELS (LIKE THE NAM)
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION,
WHICH MIGHT ADD UP TO A SLOW CLEARING DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LA, VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND A FAST CLEARING DAY
OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO (WITH SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE HILLS).
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
12/233 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF
THE ONSHORE FLOW, SHOULD ADD UP TO ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH HIGHS
INLAND OF THE COAST INTO THE 93 TO 103 TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY RECORDS ARE
VERY HIGH FOR THIS STRETCH AND LOOK SAFE. THIS WOULD USUALLY MEAN
THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN, BUT BECAUSE OF AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A LOW BUT PRESENT
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME HEAT ADVISORIES OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS.
THAT MOISTURE, WHICH IS A COMBINATION OF A TYPICAL MONSOONAL
SOURCE AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, WILL ALSO
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
OVER THE 4 COUNTY AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING THIS FAR OUT IS OFTEN A FOOLS
ERRAND, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS GOING FOR THIS SURGE: 1)
HIGH MODEL CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.25
INCHES 2) SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING MULTIPLE EASTERLY WAVES, AND 3)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WERE ADDED TO MOST AREAS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. HOLDING OFF ON
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONED YET, BUT UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY
CHANGES, THEY WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IF THIS
ALL MATERIALIZES, THERE WILL BE RISKS OF HEAVY RAIN INDUCING
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE SENSITIVE TO THESE THREATS,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.
AVIATION
12/1950Z.
AT 1919Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER
UP TO 3700 FT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY TAFS. CIGS
ARRIVAL TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 3 HOURS AND MORNING CLEARING MAY BE
OFF BY 2 HOURS. MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE OFF BY 1 CAT AT TIMES.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT
KBUR AND KPRB TONIGHT, AND A A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CIGS
AT KSBA FROM 13Z-18Z SAT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, BKN08-015 CIGS ARE LIKELY
AFTER 02Z SAT, BUT ARRIVAL TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS
A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KT
FROM 11Z-17Z SAT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF BKN005-012 CIGS
TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
MARINE
12/137 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (PEAKING AT 20-30 KTS)
WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, AND LULLS MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SCA LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND
6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL WNW
WINDS (20-25 KTS) ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE (50 PERCENT) CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE CHOPPY AND PEAK AT 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME LOCALIZED NW GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME AND
WEST OF CATALINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN WINDS WILL TREND
LIGHTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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