260
FXUS66 KLOX 130255
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/720 PM.
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY WARMING EACH DAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
PEOPLE. HUMIDITIES AND SHOWER CHANCES RISE FOR THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
12/753 PM.
***UPDATE***
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING THE AREA. LOOKING
FOR WARMING OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR, 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR COASTAL VALLEYS, AND LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IN SPITE OF THE WARMING TREND,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE, EXPECT LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO BE MOSTLY UNORGANIZED, AS IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT A FAIRLY SIMILAR CLOUD COVERAGE
TONIGHT, COVERING MUCH OF THE LA COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD BE BROKEN OVER THE VALLEYS. FOR VENTURA
COUNTY, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE BEACHES. FURTHER NORTH,
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ AND
SALINAS VALLEYS. CLEARING OVER THE SANTA BARBARA SECTION OF THE
CENTRAL COAST COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON BASED ON HREF
LOW CLOUD COVER FORECASTS.
FINALLY, BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 30
TO 35 MPH, AND WHILE THEY MAY INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS (GUSTS
TO 45 MPH). WEAKER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE I-5 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY LEADING TO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING. SOME SUB-ADVISORY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COASTS AND
THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO AROUND 585
DECAMETERS (AT 500 MILLIBARS) WHILE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN CLOSER TO NEUTRAL (AT 12Z). THIS WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE
WARM UP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS INLAND OF THE
BEACHES BETWEEN 83 AND 93 DEGREES COMMON. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
ALSO STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND HELP THE LOW CLOUDS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED, WHICH WILL MODERATE ANY WARMING
AFFECTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE DENSE FOG ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. ON MONDAY, SOME MODELS (LIKE THE NAM)
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE AROUND POINT CONCEPTION,
WHICH MIGHT ADD UP TO A SLOW CLEARING DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LA, VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND A FAST CLEARING DAY
OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO (WITH SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE HILLS).
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
12/233 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF
THE ONSHORE FLOW, SHOULD ADD UP TO ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH HIGHS
INLAND OF THE COAST INTO THE 93 TO 103 TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY RECORDS ARE
VERY HIGH FOR THIS STRETCH AND LOOK SAFE. THIS WOULD USUALLY MEAN
THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN, BUT BECAUSE OF AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A LOW BUT PRESENT
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME HEAT ADVISORIES OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS.
THAT MOISTURE, WHICH IS A COMBINATION OF A TYPICAL MONSOONAL
SOURCE AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIO, WILL ALSO
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
OVER THE 4 COUNTY AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING THIS FAR OUT IS OFTEN A FOOLS
ERRAND, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS GOING FOR THIS SURGE: 1)
HIGH MODEL CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.25
INCHES 2) SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING MULTIPLE EASTERLY WAVES, AND 3)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WERE ADDED TO MOST AREAS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. HOLDING OFF ON
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONED YET, BUT UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY
CHANGES, THEY WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IF THIS
ALL MATERIALIZES, THERE WILL BE RISKS OF HEAVY RAIN INDUCING
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE SENSITIVE TO THESE THREATS,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.
AVIATION
13/0043Z.
AROUND 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
THERE WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND 5000 FT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY TAFS. TIMING
OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS AND MINIMUM
FLIGHT CAT MAY BE OFF BY 1 CAT AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF NO CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KBUR AND KPRB TONIGHT, AND
A A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CIGS AT KSBA FROM 13Z-18Z SAT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, BKN08-015 CIGS ARE LIKELY
AFTER 02Z SAT, BUT ARRIVAL TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS
A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KT
FROM 11Z-17Z SAT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF BKN005-012 CIGS
TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF CONDS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
12/748 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (PEAKING AT 20-30 KTS)
WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, AND LULLS MAY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SCA LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND
6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL WNW
WINDS (20-25 KTS) ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL HAVE STARTED
TO DIMINISH, AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE (50 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
STAY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL).
SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY AND PEAK AT 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD/LUND
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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