739
FXUS66 KLOX 111056
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
356 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/317 AM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY, THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
11/322 AM.
THIS WEEKEND, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A POWERFUL JET ALOFT AND STRONG NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ALREADY NORTHERLY
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE OCCURING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY (GUSTS 35-45 MPH). NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TODAY, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WIND ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, MOST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
(INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PORTION), THE HWY 33 CORRIDOR,
THE I-5 CORRIDOR, ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY, SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS, SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS,
AND THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS,
WHERE GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE I-5
CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE TROUGH TRAVELS TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND GENERALLY WEAKEN. GUSTS OF 20 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FAVORED FOOTHILLS,
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, SANTA SUSANA
MOUNTAINS, AND INTERIOR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE WIND
SHIFT WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DRIER HUMIDITIES, AND BRIEFLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND, EITHER
NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MONDAY, AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONS WITH THE APPROACHING STORM, DAYTIMES
HIGHS WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOW 70S. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS (MAINLY SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY), WITH
THE CORE OF THE RAIN TRAVELING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT (SEE THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION).
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
11/356 AM.
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
NOW HIGH IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURING, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN FALLING ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
VARIATIONS IN RAIN TOTALS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
THE WINDOW OF TIME WHERE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY (WITH THE HIGHEST
RATES) IS 3 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY. STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE HIGHEST FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES AND THE
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS, WHERE TOTALS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON, AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ENHANCED RAIN
ACROSS FAVORED TERRAIN. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE THE GREATEST FOR SANTA
LUCIAS AND SOUTH- FACING SLOPES INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ AND
WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS (20 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 4
INCHES). FOR LA COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF VENTURA COUNTY,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE
SANTA MONICA AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.
RAIN RATES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 0.33
INCHES/HOUR, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN STRONGER CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STORM
IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF WINDS SHEAR AND MODERATELY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THUS THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOCUSED OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES.
A STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR EARLY OCTOBER,
BUT IT IS FAIRLY RARE. THE LAST TIME A STORM PRODUCED 1 INCH OF
RAIN AT DOWNTOWN LA IN OCTOBER (WITHIN 1 CALENDER DAY) WAS IN
2011, AND THE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
OCTOBER IS 0.58 INCHES AT DTLA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DRAMATICALLY COOLER, WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING BELOW 70 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, THROUGH MORE RAIN AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
11/1024Z.
AROUND 07Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP AT KLAX.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW-TO-
MODERATE CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND
KPRB THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KSBA THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 22Z THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z. WIND IMPACTS COULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE. WHILE ANY EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT NORTH WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM 02Z TO 06Z SUNDAY, THEN
THERE IS MODERATE CHANCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10
KNOTS THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z SUNDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KBUR BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
11/325 AM.
FOR THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, STRONGEST FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH
TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. THERE COULD BE LULLS IN THE WINDS DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS, INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK OR REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL ADJACENT TO THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BIGHT. SHORT-
PERIOD HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY REACHING
VENTURA COUNTY HARBORS, SUCH AS VENTURA AND CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR
DURING THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WHERE A MODERATE-TO-
HIGH (30-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALES EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 88-350-352-353-375>379-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RK/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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