758  
FXUS66 KLOX 112048  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
148 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
11/358 AM.  
 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY, THEN SHIFT TO  
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRYING  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE  
AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL  
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
 
11/147 PM.  
 
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE  
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE  
NORTHERN CA COAST MONDAY THEN DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CA ON  
TUESDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN, A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND  
PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHWESTERN CA.  
 
WINDS...  
 
STRONG NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS, GUSTS 35-50 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS  
TO AROUND 60 MPH, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE SANTA YNEZ RANGE  
AS WELL AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER  
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. DUE TO  
THE EXPECTED WIND GUSTS, WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR  
THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHECK LAXNPWLOX FOR THE DETAILS.  
 
LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY, THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS  
OF 20-40 MPH LIKELY IN THE SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE SPOTS OF VENTURA  
AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST  
WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED AND NO WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE  
ISSUED.  
 
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE ACROSS  
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS  
THE STATE. WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY (AND EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME AREAS REACHING WARNING LEVELS).  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
ALL SYSTEMS ARE "GO" FOR A RATHER POTENT EARLY SEASON STORM FOR  
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN  
ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN  
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES  
TO THINKING ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SLO/SBA COUNTIES GETTING  
WIDESPREAD 1.50-4.00 INCH TOTALS AND VENTURA/LA COUNTIES GETTING  
WIDESPREAD 0.75-3.00 INCH TOTALS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR  
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  
 
BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A GREATER  
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RATES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  
INDICATE A QLCS-TYPE STRUCTURE ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS FEATURE VERIFIES, RAINFALL  
RATES UP TO AROUND 0.80 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.10-0.50  
INCH PER HOUR RANGE. WITH THOSE POTENTIAL ENHANCED RAINFALL  
RATES, THERE COULD BE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DECENT. SO,  
HAVE BUMPED UP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE 25-35% RANGE FOR  
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND 15-25% RANGE FOR VENTURA COUNTY AND FAR  
WESTERN LA COUNTY. ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE STRONG WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND EVEN A  
WATERSPOUT OR A WEAK, SHORT-LIVED, TORNADO.  
 
FINALLY, LOOKING AT THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS AND WET BULB ZERO  
FORECASTS, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 6000-7000  
FOOT RANGE ON TUESDAY. SO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (SEVERAL INCHES) AT THE RESORT LEVEL.  
CONFIDENCE IN ANY EXACT AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT THE  
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  
   
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
 
11/147 PM.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC  
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, LOW MOVES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS  
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
WITH THIS PATTERN, RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON  
WEDNESDAY, COOL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE  
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MENTIONABLE THREAT OF  
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING  
TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND LIMITED  
MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A PERIOD OF WEAK  
OFFSHORE FLOW WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A MORE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN.  
SO, THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE  
THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
11/1024Z.  
 
AROUND 07Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP AT KLAX.  
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF  
24 DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW-TO-  
MODERATE CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND  
KPRB THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS  
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE  
POSSIBLE NEAR KSBA THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL  
TERMINALS FROM 22Z THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.  
 
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z  
AND 16Z. WIND IMPACTS COULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE. WHILE ANY EASTERLY  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THERE IS  
A HIGH CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT NORTH WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM 02Z TO 06Z SUNDAY, THEN  
THERE IS MODERATE CHANCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10  
KNOTS THEREAFTER. PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND  
TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z SUNDAY.  
 
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF  
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE  
POSSIBLE NEAR KBUR BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
11/105 PM.  
 
FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL  
ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,  
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY  
MID-AFTERNOON TODAY AND LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE  
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN  
NICOLAS ISLAND, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS  
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF  
LINGERING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO  
THE GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS, INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD SEEK OR  
REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.  
 
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIGHT, AS WELL AS THE  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND POSSIBLY ACROSS  
THE ANACAPA PASSAGE. SHORT- PERIOD HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS AND SEAS  
POTENTIALLY REACHING VENTURA COUNTY HARBORS, SUCH AS VENTURA AND  
CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR DURING THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL,  
WHERE A MODERATE-TO- HIGH (30-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALES EXISTS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
LOOKING OUT AT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A STORM SYSTEM AND  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS COLD  
FRONT BRINGS A 20-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SANTA  
BARBARA CHANNEL, WEST PAST THE CHANNEL ISLANDS, AND NORTHWARD TO  
THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY LINE. FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE SANTA  
BARBARA CHANNEL, INCLUDING THE WATERS NEARSHORE LA AND ORANGE  
COUNTIES, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY  
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO  
SURFACE LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EVEN A  
WATERSPOUT. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL SW WINDS AND SEAS,  
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT  
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR  
ZONES 88-349>353-375>379-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT  
FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES  
645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE  
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE  
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES  
673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...HALL  
MARINE...HALL/LUND  
SYNOPSIS...RK/SCHOENFELD  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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