967
FXUS66 KLOX 121042
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
342 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/329 AM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY. A WINTER LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
12/328 AM.
THIS MORNING, AS YESTERDAY'S TROUGH TRAVELS TO THE EAST, SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT WERE PREDOMINANTLY NORTH- TO-SOUTH WILL
TAKE ON A SLIGHT EAST-TO-WEST OFFSHORE COMPONENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SANTA BABARA SOUTH COAST, THE I-5
CORRIDOR, THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, AND FAVORED MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL
MID-MORNING, THOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELED EARLIER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
MONDAY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, CUTTING EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA JUST
SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA LATE TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WITH AROUND 5 TO 10 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURING
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. RAIN WILL START AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, REACHING SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE IN THE
EVENING MONDAY, VENTURA COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT, AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES, STORM TOTAL RAIN IS FORECASTED TO BE 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 2.0 TO 4.0 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UPWARDS FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL COMPONENT. TOTALS FOR LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES ARE FORECASTED TO BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR THE
LOWLANDS (EXCEPT 0.25 TO 1.0 INCHES FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) AND
2.0 TO 3.5 INCHES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WEATHER MODELS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATH OF
THE STORM, THUS ALLOWING THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AND IMPACTS TO
CONVERGE. THE SOURCE OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT LIES WITH
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH
PARAMETERS THAT INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LINE OF STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON), SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ROTATING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN RATES (UP TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES/HOUR
POSSIBLE) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL, BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTING, AND A
REMOTE CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT OR WEAK TORNADO. OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AROUND 25-35% FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND 15-25% VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF LOCAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOW ISSUES (ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS). OVERALL, THE MOST
COMMON IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO INCLUDE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO SLICK
ROADS, PONDING OF WATER, AND CANCELED OUTDOOR EVENTS.
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, THANKS TO A VIGOROUS JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PRECEDING THE MAIN CORE OF THE
RAINFALL, THOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL HIGH WIND
WARNINGS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY, THUS
SOME (FEW INCHES) ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT RESORT LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY, DURING A CONVECTIVE STORM CELL, LOCALLY LOWER SNOW
LEVEL MAY DROP SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY EVEN LOWER. THERE IS HOWEVER A
HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
12/341 AM.
AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION WEDNESAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BUT THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE COOL, ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY (60-70 DEGREES
COMMON) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISTURBED. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK (OCT
20-21), THOUGH AT THIS POINT ONLY A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVOR ANY RAIN.
AVIATION
12/0614Z.
AT 0408Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDS FOR ALL SITES, EXCEPT FOR KLGB,
KLAX AND KSMO.
FOR KLGB AND KLAX THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO CIGS. IF CIGS DO
ARRIVE THEY COULD ARRIVE ANY TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, AND HEIGHTS
COULD BE OFF BY UP TO 200 FT. AT KSMO, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
BKN002-BKN006 CIGS ARRIVING BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. THERE IS A 25%
CHANCE OF 1/4SM FG VIS WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT DO FORM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FROM 10Z-17Z, OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO CIGS. IF LOW CLOUDS DO
ARRIVE IT COULD BE ANY TIME 10Z-14Z, AND THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF 1/4SM FG CONDS WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM. THERE IS A
10% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 6 KT UNTIL 10Z SUN.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
34012KT WINDS UNTIL 12Z.
MARINE
12/118 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) (PZZ670/645). WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM POINT
CONCEPTION DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, THUS GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (PZZ673/676).
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN SOME FASHION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS, INEXPERIENCED BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK OR REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN & SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. LIKELY REACHING THE ANACAPA
PASSAGE BY EARLY EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS CALM TO BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A 20-40%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WEST PAST THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS, AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY LINE.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, INCLUDING THE
WATERS NEARSHORE LA AND ORANGE COUNTIES, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EVEN A
WATERSPOUT. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL SW WINDS AND SEAS,
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 88-349>353-375>379-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page