860
FXUS66 KLOX 121513
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
813 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/329 AM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY. A WINTER LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
12/812 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE LAX COASTAL
PLAIN AND CATALINA ISLAND. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE
INVERSION AROUND 600 FEET DEEP. AS FOR WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, GUSTING 25-40 MPH, ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BUMP UP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD BEGIN THE DOWNWARD TREND BY LATE MORNING. SO,
WILL LET CURRENT SLATE OF WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 AM
THEN LIKELY LET IT EXPIRE. AS FOR STRATUS/FOG, THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY, BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ALONG THE COAST.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, OTHER THAN THE LIKELY EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORIES
AT 1000 AM, NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SUITE, ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STORM.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THIS MORNING, AS YESTERDAY'S TROUGH TRAVELS TO THE EAST, SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT WERE PREDOMINANTLY NORTH- TO-SOUTH WILL
TAKE ON A SLIGHT EAST-TO-WEST OFFSHORE COMPONENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SANTA BABARA SOUTH COAST, THE I-5
CORRIDOR, THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, AND FAVORED MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL
MID-MORNING, THOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELED EARLIER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
MONDAY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, CUTTING EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA JUST
SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA LATE TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WITH AROUND 5 TO 10 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURING
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. RAIN WILL START AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, REACHING SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE IN THE
EVENING MONDAY, VENTURA COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT, AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES, STORM TOTAL RAIN IS FORECASTED TO BE 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 2.0 TO 4.0 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UPWARDS FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL COMPONENT. TOTALS FOR LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES ARE FORECASTED TO BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR THE
LOWLANDS (EXCEPT 0.25 TO 1.0 INCHES FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) AND
2.0 TO 3.5 INCHES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WEATHER MODELS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATH OF
THE STORM, THUS ALLOWING THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AND IMPACTS TO
CONVERGE. THE SOURCE OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT LIES WITH
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH
PARAMETERS THAT INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LINE OF STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON), SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ROTATING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN RATES (UP TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES/HOUR
POSSIBLE) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL, BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTING, AND A
REMOTE CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT OR WEAK TORNADO. OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AROUND 25-35% FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, AND 15-25% VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF LOCAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOW ISSUES (ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS). OVERALL, THE MOST
COMMON IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO INCLUDE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO SLICK
ROADS, PONDING OF WATER, AND CANCELED OUTDOOR EVENTS.
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, THANKS TO A VIGOROUS JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PRECEDING THE MAIN CORE OF THE
RAINFALL, THOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL HIGH WIND
WARNINGS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET TUESDAY, THUS
SOME (FEW INCHES) ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT RESORT LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY, DURING A CONVECTIVE STORM CELL, LOCALLY LOWER SNOW
LEVEL MAY DROP SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY EVEN LOWER. THERE IS HOWEVER A
HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
12/341 AM.
AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION WEDNESAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BUT THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE COOL, ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY (60-70 DEGREES
COMMON) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISTURBED. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK (OCT
20-21), THOUGH AT THIS POINT ONLY A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVOR ANY RAIN.
AVIATION
12/1303Z.
AT 1227Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 1100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
OVERALL, GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KLGB, KSMO, & KLAX WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 17Z SUN, AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS END OF FCST PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY,
EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN FEW/SCT 003-005 & BKN/OVC 003-005.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO FALL BETWEEN
14Z TO 16Z SUN. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING BY 17Z (+/- 1 HR).
MVFR CIGS ~015 LIKELY (60%) TO ARRIVE SOMETIME AFTER 08Z MON.
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8 KNOTS
FROM 08Z MON THRU 18Z MON.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
12/738 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) (PZZ670/645). WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM POINT
CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, THUS GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT (PZZ673/676). SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN SOME FASHION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN & SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. LIKELY REACHING THE ANACAPA
PASSAGE BY EARLY EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS CALM TO BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A 20-40%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WEST PAST THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS, AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY LINE.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, INCLUDING THE
WATERS NEARSHORE LA AND ORANGE COUNTIES, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EVEN A
WATERSPOUT. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL SW WINDS AND SEAS,
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF GALES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 88-352-353-375>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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