350
FSUS46 KLOX 132202
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
255 PM PDT MON OCT 13 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 0500 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1700.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 1700 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: MON OCT 13 2025 THROUGH SUN OCT 19 2025.
17-20 20-23 23-02 02-05 | 05-11 11-17
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA 0.6 0.3 0.1 LGT | 0.2 LGT
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA 0.6 0.3 0.1 LGT | 0.2 LGT
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 | 0.2 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.33-0.66 0.50-0.66
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 40% 60%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 25%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 2000-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
17-20 20-23 23-02 02-05 | 05-11 11-17
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA LGT 0.3 0.4 0.1 | 0.2 LGT
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO LGT 0.1 0.7 0.4 | 0.3 LGT
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM LGT 0.2 0.9 0.6 | 0.2 LGT
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS LGT 0.2 0.8 0.5 | 0.2 LGT
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY LGT 0.1 0.6 0.3 | 0.2 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.33-0.50 0.50-0.66
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 40% 60%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 25%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 2000-0400
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
17-20 20-23 23-02 02-05 | 05-11 11-17
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON LGT 0.1 0.2 0.7 | 0.4 LGT
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON LGT LGT 0.3 0.8 | 0.6 LGT
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM LGT 0.2 0.4 1.0 | 0.5 LGT
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY LGT LGT 0.2 0.5 | 0.3 LGT
MORC1:MOORPARK LGT LGT 0.1 0.4 | 0.6 LGT
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH LGT LGT 0.2 0.6 | 0.6 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.33-0.50 0.50-0.66
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 40% 60%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 25%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0000-1000
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
17-20 20-23 23-02 02-05 | 05-11 11-17
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT LGT 0.1 0.2 0.7 | 1.9 0.2
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM LGT 0.1 LGT 0.2 | 1.2 0.4
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM LGT 0.1 0.2 0.5 | 1.1 LGT
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE LGT 0.1 0.1 0.3 | 1.2 LGT
SAUC1:SAUGUS LGT LGT 0.2 0.4 | 0.8 LGT
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA 0.0 LGT LGT 0.1 | 0.9 LGT
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA 0.0 LGT 0.1 0.4 | 0.7 LGT
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.33-0.50 0.50-0.66
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 40% 70%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: 15% 30%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0200-1200
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION:
A RARE AND VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN ON TARGET, WITH 0.75 AND
1.50 INCHES COMMON, EXCEPT 2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES AND ANYWHERE THOSE HEAVY BURSTS FORM. AN
ISOLATED READING OF 5 INCHES IS ON THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SAN GABRIELS WHERE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW THE HIGHEST TOTALS.
PEAK RAINFALL RATES OF 0.33 TO 0.66 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON.
ISOLATED RATES TO AROUND 1.00 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY, BUT
AGAIN NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE. WEDESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY.
THE LAST ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THIS RAINY SEASON
WAS ON APRIL 30. ROUTINE ISSUANCES WILL RESUME ON NOV 1.
NON-ROUTINE ISSUANCES OF THIS PRODUCT WILL OCCUR SHOULD WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BE EXPECTED.
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