722  
FXUS66 KLOX 141031  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
331 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
14/146 AM.  
 
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED  
HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THERE IS A  
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DEBRIS FLOWS, ROAD FLOODING, AND ISOLATED WIND  
DAMAGE. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND END BY LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP  
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)  
14/331 AM.  
 
THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH AN EARLY SEASON LOW IS CURRENTLY  
DRAPED OVER THE MIDDLES OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. A STRONG FOR  
OCTOBER 100KT JET STREAM IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERPENDICULAR TO THE  
MAIN FRONT AND THIS WILL HELP MOVE IT ALONG. LOOK FOR IT TO MOVE  
INTO AND THROUGH THE CITY OF SBA BETWEEN 330AM AND 500 AM. THE  
FRONT WILL THEN ENTER VTA COUNTY AROUND 5AM AND EXIT AROUND 8AM.  
IT WILL THEN ENTER LA COUNTY AROUND 600 AM AND EXIT BETWEEN 10AM.  
A TIGHTLY WRAPPED VORT LOBE IS FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT  
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT GOING FOR A  
FEW HOURS AFTER THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE ADDED UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AND HALF  
ACROSS SLO COUNTY; AND INCH ACROSS MOST OF SBA COUNTY; A QUARTER  
TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NON MTN AREAS OF VTA COUNTY AND ABOUT AN  
INCH ACROSS MOST THE COUNTIES MTNS; LA COUNTY HAS RECEIVED  
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH. WHEN ALL IS SAID DONE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO THE FORECAST NUMBERS OF  
0.75 AND 1.50 INCHES COMMON, EXCEPT 2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES IN THE  
FAVORABLE SOUTH FACING SLOPES.  
 
PEAK RAINFALL RATES IN AND NEAR TO THE FRONT HAVE RANGED FROM .5  
TO 1.00 INCH/HR WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE FLOODING AND  
DEBRIS FLOWS OVER AND NEAR TO THE 1ST AND 2ND YEAR BURN SCARS. A  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE BURN SCARS IS IN EFFECT AND PEOPLE WHO  
LIVE NEAR BY MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND EMERGENCY  
OFFICIALS.  
 
THERE IS AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF TWIST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND  
THIS ALONG WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY THE JET IS PUMPING INTO THE  
SYSTEM AND THE EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS CREATED A VERY  
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS.  
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS AS INDICATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HAVE  
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE FRONT AND ITS LIKELY THAT IT WILL  
PRODUCE MORE AS IT MARCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA.  
 
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MANY AREAS ACROSS  
THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55  
MPH.  
 
SNOW WILL FALL AT THE RESORT LEVELS (7000+ FT) BUT WILL NOT AFFECT  
THE MAJOR PASSES.  
 
LASTLY MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OR 12  
TO 24 DEGREES BLO NORMAL - THESE TEMPS, IN FACT, WOULD BE BELOW  
NORMAL FOR JANUARY.  
 
LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY AS DRY NW FLOW COMING AROUND THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES  
OF WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  
 
GOOD NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW  
FROM THE NORTH DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN  
THE MORNING BUT MOSTLY LIKELY UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE  
LOOK FOR CONTINUED WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP  
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)  
14/208 AM.  
 
A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A POS TILT TROF MOVING  
OUT OF SRN CA WILL COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO  
THE MTN CANYONS AND PASSES. DESPITE A LITTLE COOL AIR ADVECTION  
FROM THE NORTH MAX TEMPS WILL BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  
MAX TEMPS WILL, HOWEVER, STILL REMAIN UNDER NORMALS.  
 
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING  
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES TO ALL OF THE AREA. UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC  
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY SO THERE WILL ONLY  
BE MINIMAL MORNING WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER 2 OR 3  
DEGREES AND THIS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH  
MOSTLY 70S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE VLYS.  
 
A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO  
THE COASTAL MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL  
ALSO BRING 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING UP AND DOWN THE CSTS/VLYS.  
 
LONG WAVE TROFFING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE  
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL  
4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES AND END UP 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMALS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
14/0614Z.  
 
AT 0544Z AT KLAX, THERE A WAS 8800 FT MOIST LAYER.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH  
THE AREA AND WILL EXIT LA COUNTY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY (14/20Z).  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE AREAS OF TURBC  
OVER AND NEAR TO HIER TRRN.  
 
BOTH CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY AS THE FRONT NEARS PASSES  
OVER EVERY SITE. OCNL IFR CIG/VIS IS LIKELY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS  
AND/OR TSTMS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS WITH THE FRONT  
AND A 20 PERCENT CHC DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY  
08Z-20Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 12Z TO 18Z  
TUE. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF OCNL 2SM OVC008 CONDS 12Z-18Z.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 12-18 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT 13Z-17Z.  
 
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS AND VIS WILL VARY FREQUENTLY  
08Z-20Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM 12Z TO 18Z  
TUE. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF OCNL 2SM OVC008 CONDS 12Z-18Z.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
14/225 AM.  
 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.  
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO  
SURFACE LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER,  
CHOPPY SEAS, SMALL HAIL, AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT. PLEASE SEE THE  
LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  
 
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS N OF POINT SAL, SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED (60%-70% CHANCE)  
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, THEN DECREASING FROM THE WEST  
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY INCREASING NW WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ONCE  
AGAIN. BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. CONDS SHOULD THEN  
BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, S TO SW WINDS  
AT SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING  
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF  
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE  
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS  
AND ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT MUGU TO POINT DUME. CONDS SHOULD  
THEN BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONES  
38-342>345-351>353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR ZONES  
38-88-342-344-345-348-353-355-358-362-368>375-377>380-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).  
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ZONES 376>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING  
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...RORKE  
AVIATION...RORKE  
MARINE...SIRARD/CILIBERTI  
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
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