390
FXUS66 KLOX 150529
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1029 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/119 PM.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT SANTA
ANA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
14/1028 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE MOST INTENSE RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM HAVE EXITED THE AREA, WITH
A HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF ANACAPA ISLAND, PUSHING INTO THE SANTA
MONICA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED PAST 11PM TONIGHT FOR LA COUNTY, WHICH HAS ANOTHER
BRIEF SHOT AT SOME SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT IF STRONGER SHOWERS
LINGER OVER VULNERABLE AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, THEY
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL END
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THURSDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A STRONG SYSTEM FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR, LET ALONE OCTOBER, HAS
FINALLY EXITED THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE A 5-10 MINUTE MODERATE
SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE BIG IMPACTS HAVE ENDED. THE BIG RAIN WINNERS WERE IN THE
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER 5". OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ENDED UP WITH BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5 INCHES.
GOING FORWARD, REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. A LIGHT SANTA ANA EVENT WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM,
PEAKING THU/FRI. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG, BUT
COULD GET SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S IN THE SAN GABRIELS AND SOME OF
THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THE MORE NOTABLE
CHANGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S AT THE COAST. MAY
GET SOME PATCHES OF FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS
WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND RAPID COOLING UNDER
CLEARING SKIES. OTHERWISE, NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE LAYER
FORMATION THE REST OF THE WEEK SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
14/141 PM.
A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING UP AND DOWN THE CSTS/VLYS.
LONG WAVE TROFFING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES AND END UP 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMALS.
AVIATION
15/0259Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FOR KBUR, KVNY, AND KSMX NORTHWARD BUT
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST AT KPRB. RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
08Z FOR TAF SITES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.
KLAX...LINGERING RA POSSIBLE, AROUND 04Z TO 08Z. RA MAY LEAD TO
BRIEFLY LOWER VIS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR BRIEF RA FROM 05Z TO 08Z. 20%
CHANCE OF LIFR FG 10-16Z.
MARINE
14/836 PM.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BUT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE MINIMAL. CHOPPY SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN SCA NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...LEWIS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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