208
FXUS66 KLOX 151011
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/119 PM.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT SANTA
ANA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
15/304 AM.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT DEPARTED THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER THROUGH DAWN BUT OVER ALL ITS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY.
A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVED OVER SRN LA COUNTY LAST EVENING AND VERY
EARLY MORNING. MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING OVER A TENTH OF
AN INCH, BUT THE PALISADES BURN SCAR DID PICK UP A HALF INCH TO
TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF EXTRA RAIN. FORTUNATELY THE RAIN RATE WAS
LOW ENOUGH THAT ONLY MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED. THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL BE A SUNNY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
BACK OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. CLOUD FREE AND RAIN FREE THE AREA
WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WHICH WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS. THESE WARMER HIGHS ARE
STILL 8 TO 16 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
A WEAK SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL SET UP WITH SOME NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 3 TO 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC. DO NOT SEE ANY
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS DEVELOPING. STILL, THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SANTA ANA PRONE
AREAS OF LA/VTA COUNTIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL BRING ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE 4
COUNTY AREA. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
VLYS.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS ON FRIDAY AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AS WELL. THE PEAK WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR (SANTA CLARITA VLY TO
MUGU NAS) COULD REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST UNDER. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING WILL
BRING SOME SITES UP TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST SITES,
HOWEVER, WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
15/113 AM.
A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP FROM THE SE ON SATURDAY AND HGTS RISE TO
584 DAM. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
REMAIN ABSENT AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE 2 OR 3
DEGREES AWAY FORM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THIS WARMING WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY SRN CA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE PUSHING UP FROM
THE SE. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING HARMLESSLY TO THE SW
WHILE NRN CA AND THE PACNW WILL BE UNDER A A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
TROF. ONSHORE TRENDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO DEVELOP A MARINE INVERSION AS WELL AS A COASTAL STRATUS
DECK. IN RESPONSE TO THE NEWLY FORMED MARINE LAYER AND SWITCH TO
ONSHORE FLOW, MAX TEMPS WILL DROP 2 TO 3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
NOT THE BEST MDL AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROF PASSAGE AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN OF 3 TO 6 DEGREES. THERE ARE, HOWEVER,
A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW RIDGING AND SOME WARMING.
MDL DISAGREEMENT WORSENS ON TUESDAY WITH THE EC SWEEPING A DRY CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE AREA AND THE GFS FAVORING A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER.
THE GFS FAVORS DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW, WHILE THE EC SHOWS NEAR
NEUTRAL FLOW. WHAT EVER THE OUTCOME IT WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS (LESS SO IF THE WINDIER GFS VERIFIES)
AVIATION
15/0606Z.
AT 0545Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT
COASTAL SITES FROM KSBP TO KCMA THROUGH 16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN025 CONDS THROUGH 12Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A 6
TO 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT THROUGH 12Z THEN A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A
6 TO 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT THROUGH 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
BKN025 CONDS THROUGH 12Z.
MARINE
14/836 PM.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BUT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE MINIMAL. CHOPPY SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN SCA NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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