430
FXUS66 KLOX 151722
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1022 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
15/921 AM.
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY BUT COOL AND BREEZY AT TIMES. A LIGHT SANTA
ANA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
15/941 AM.
***UPDATE***
A MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE STORM HAS EXITED TO THE EAST AND
OVERALL VERY LITTLE IMPACTFUL WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
I5 CORRIDOR, MAINLY LATER IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THAT I5 WIND WILL SPILL INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA MONICAS AND THE SANTA MONICA
BAY AREA BUT MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AND STILL DEALING WITH
A LITTLE LEFT OVER MOISTURE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST, BUT EXPECTING A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AND
GENERALLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL WITH TEMPERATURES
5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
A WEAK SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL SET UP WITH SOME NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 3 TO 5 MB OF OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC. DO NOT SEE ANY
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS DEVELOPING. STILL, THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SANTA ANA PRONE
AREAS OF LA/VTA COUNTIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL BRING ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE 4
COUNTY AREA. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
VLYS.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS ON FRIDAY AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AS WELL. THE PEAK WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR (SANTA CLARITA VLY TO
MUGU NAS) COULD REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST UNDER. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING WILL
BRING SOME SITES UP TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST SITES,
HOWEVER, WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
15/113 AM.
A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP FROM THE SE ON SATURDAY AND HGTS RISE TO
584 DAM. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
EAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
REMAIN ABSENT AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE 2 OR 3
DEGREES AWAY FORM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. THIS WARMING WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY SRN CA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE PUSHING UP FROM
THE SE. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING HARMLESSLY TO THE SW
WHILE NRN CA AND THE PACNW WILL BE UNDER A A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
TROF. ONSHORE TRENDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO DEVELOP A MARINE INVERSION AS WELL AS A COASTAL STRATUS
DECK. IN RESPONSE TO THE NEWLY FORMED MARINE LAYER AND SWITCH TO
ONSHORE FLOW, MAX TEMPS WILL DROP 2 TO 3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
NOT THE BEST MDL AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROF PASSAGE AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN OF 3 TO 6 DEGREES. THERE ARE, HOWEVER,
A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW RIDGING AND SOME WARMING.
MDL DISAGREEMENT WORSENS ON TUESDAY WITH THE EC SWEEPING A DRY CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE AREA AND THE GFS FAVORING A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER.
THE GFS FAVORS DECENT OFFSHORE FLOW, WHILE THE EC SHOWS NEAR
NEUTRAL FLOW. WHAT EVER THE OUTCOME IT WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS (LESS SO IF THE WINDIER GFS VERIFIES)
AVIATION
15/1721Z.
AROUND 17Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AT
KVNY AND KBUR. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS FROM THE NORTH AT KVNY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION BETWEEN 180 TO
360 DEG AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE
FOR NE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS TO SURFACE AT KSBP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIFR TO IFR
CONDS AT KLGB AND VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS AT KPRB BETWEEN 07Z AND 16Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR AN EAST
WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT TO REACH 8 KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS,
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAX WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS, BUT WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION BETWEEN 180
DEG AND 360 DEG RAPIDLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
15/845 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KNOTS) ARE
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCALIZED NE WINDS 20-25 KNOTS MAY SURFACE BETWEEN MORRO BAY AND
VANDENBERG SFB LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS WEEKEND.
NW WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING
NEARSHORE PORTIONS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. LOCALIZED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20
KNOTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN
POINT DUME AND SANTA MONICA AND INTO THE SANTA MONICA BAY, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THEN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT
WILL CREATE NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS BETWEEN THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
HARBOR AND MALIBU AND INTO THE ANACAPA PASSAGE, WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FOCUSED NEARSHORE.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 FEET
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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