457
FXUS66 KLOX 160515
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 PM PDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/121 PM.
A LIGHT SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
15/830 PM.
***UPDATE***
MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS HAVE LED TO MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY GUSTY
WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, BUT HAVE SURFACED ACROSS
THE EASTERN SANTA YNEZ FOOTHILLS WHERE MONTECITO HILLS WAS LOCALLY
GUSTING BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. MORE THAN LIKELY THESE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (REFS) INDICATED
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL (GUSTS TO 45 MPH) NORTHEAST
WINDS THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS TO OTHER
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE COLDER AIR
FROM THE STORM IS STILL AROUND AS HIGHS TODAY ARE 5-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THAT WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS THE FIRST SANTA ANA EVENT OF THE FALL WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AND PEAK ON FRIDAY. WILL ACTUALLY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE I5
CORRIDOR, SOME OF WHICH WILL SPILL DOWN INTO THE WESTERN LA
VALLEYS, SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND THE SANTA MONICA BAY.
NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT COULD GET SOME GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS ALOFT
START TO PICK UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S. WITH
THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST HIGHS THURSDAY WILL WARM UP 5-10 DEGREES
OVER TODAY'S TEMPS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE COAST
AND VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES AND THE LA MOUNTAINS WITH
WIND GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20-30
MPH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE 90TH PERCENTILE WIND
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS. SO MAINLY A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT AT
THIS TIME AS GRADIENTS TO THE EAST PEAK AT JUST OVER 3MB AND WINDS
ALOFT ARE MOSTLY UNDER 35MPH, BUT WILL MONITOR THE UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS AN UNEXPECTED TREND TOWARDS A STRONGER
EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S FOR MOST AREAS, BUT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING OFFSHORE
BREEZES SATURDAY MORNING BUT AT LEAST 50% LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
15/209 PM.
MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INSIDE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAX MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. AT PRESENT THE
MODELS ARE NOT FAVORING A RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW DESPITE THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS. NOT VERY GOOD CONSENSUS
OVERALL WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
NEARBY SO EXPECT SOME DEVIATIONS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER.
SO FAR NONE OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING ANY RAIN
NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH, AS WELL AS
WITH THE COOLING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO THE TRANSITION
FROM OFFSHORE BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. DECREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS BEYOND THAT BUT 80% CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION
16/0200Z.
AROUND 2153Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AT
KVNY AND KBUR. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH AT KVNY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION BETWEEN 180 TO
360 DEG AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE
FOR NE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS TO SURFACE AT KSBP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE EAST WIND
COMPONENT FROM 08Z TO 12Z, AND A 40% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH 10
KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS,
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAX WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS, BUT WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION BETWEEN 180
DEG AND 360 DEG RAPIDLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
15/1015 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS (20-30 KNOTS) ARE
LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND OUT TO 60
NM FROM SHORE. LOCALIZED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS MAY SURFACE
BETWEEN MORRO BAY AND VANDENBERG SFB LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS
WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN POINT
DUME AND SANTA MONICA, WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL CREATE NE WINDS OF 15-25
KTS BETWEEN THE CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR AND MALIBU AND INTO THE
ANACAPA PASSAGE, WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED NEARSHORE.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 FEET
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RM
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
MARINE...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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