306
FXUS66 KLOX 162016
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
116 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
16/211 AM.
A LIGHT SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
16/115 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT/FRIDAY THEN A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK
DIURNAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST-WISE, THE MAIN "ISSUE" IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECASTS, OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TOP OUT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF -2.8 MB. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
VERY LIMITED. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AS WELL
AS THE CENTRAL COAST, BUT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOCALIZED. LATEST HREF INDICATES THIS SAME THINKING WITH
ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF 35+ MPH WINDS IN THE MORE FAVORED WIND
PRONE AREAS. SO, WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR THESE WINDS AT
THIS TIME. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, A DIURNAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO, WITH THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY CONCERN FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. OVERALL, CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
MORNING HOURS, RISING THICKNESSES AND LIMITED MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH PERSISTENCE/SLIGHT WARMING FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
16/115 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES, BUT NOTHING
THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ENTRAIN ANY MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%). HOWEVER,
THE LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS AND THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN DEPTH AND
AREAL COVERAGE. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS/FOG, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT
A GENERAL COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SLIGHT WARMING IN SOME INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
16/1733Z.
AT 1654Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1000 FT. THERE WAS A WEAK
INVERSION TO 2500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR AT KPRB, WHERE THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT KPRB, KSBP, AND KSMX.
NORTHEAST WINDS (UP TO 20 KNOTS) MAY SURFACE AT KSBP/KSMX THROUGH
00Z, AND AGAIN FROM 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AT KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, AND KVNY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS REMAIN ALOFT AND DO NOT SURFACE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER ANY
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF WITH NO WIND ISSUES.
KBUR....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS
AND TURBULENCE (ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN) IS POSSIBLE
AS NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN 2000 FT OF THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE, BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURFACE.
MARINE
16/114 PM.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
POINT SAL SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION REACHING THRESHOLDS THE
LONGEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FROM MORRO BAY SOUTH TO PISMO BEACH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SEAS SMALLER.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCALIZED NEARSHORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SCA LEVEL BETWEEN RINCON
POINT AND POINT DUME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE WINDS,
ANY CHANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS VERY LOW.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
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