985  
FXUS66 KLOX 170953  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
253 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
17/251 AM.  
 
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND KEEP  
WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND  
CANYONS. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
 
17/250 AM.  
 
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA TODAY AS  
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH  
EXCEPTION TO SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. A FEW REPORTS OF  
BREEZY AND SUB-ADVISORY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY  
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WINDS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING A FEW  
SPOTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCAL GUSTS TO  
45 MPH COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO  
STAY ISOLATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING TODAY  
AND INTO SATURDAY. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW  
PATTERN WILL DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. MEANWHILE, THE INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.  
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL AND  
VALLEY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FACTORS.  
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
IN WIND-SHELTERED AREAS, CLEARER SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PERMIT RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES TO BE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT  
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, SATURDAY MORNING  
COULD START OUT A LITTLE CHILLIER IN WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS,  
SUCH AS THE OJAI AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS, AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE AND CUYAMA VALLEYS.  
 
A COOLING TREND WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY AS OFFSHORE  
FLOW STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BE REPLACED BY AN ONSHORE FLOW  
REGIME. A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD  
RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH RETURNING IN  
A SHALLOW LAYER, DENSE FOG COULD BECOME A HAZARD TO START THE  
WEEK FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.  
   
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
 
17/252 AM.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION NEAR 30N  
AND 125W WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS MOSTLY KEEP THE  
REGION DRY WITH THIS TROUGH, ABOUT A FIFTH OF THE LATEST EPS  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA  
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE OUTLIER NATURE OF THE  
WETTER SOLUTIONS, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST  
OF THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY NOT MODELED CORRECTLY. DUE TO THE  
DATA-SPARSE REGION, LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE  
REGION ARE A PROBLEMATIC FEATURE TO MODEL. IT IS NOT SURPRISING  
TO SEE THE AI SOLUTIONS OF THE EPS TO HAVE EVEN MORE MEMBERS WITH  
PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT CAUTION SHOULD USED IN THE PRECIPITATION  
FORECAST. FOR NOW, NBM VALUES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT THIS  
WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED SOME TIME TO GET IRONED  
OUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
17/0703Z.  
 
AT 05Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE  
INVERSION WAS AT 1900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.  
 
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR LIFR AT KPRB 10-16Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE  
EXPANSIVE THAN THURSDAY. 10-15 KNOTS AND/OR LLWS POSSIBLE AT  
KSBP,KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, AND KVNY. LIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE UDDF OVER  
AREA MOUNTAINS.  
 
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY. EAST  
WINDS POSSIBLE 12-16Z BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL STAY  
UNDER 8 KNOTS.  
 
KBUR....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NE WINDS  
IN THE AREA, BUT UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ISSUES AT THE TERMINAL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
17/203 AM.  
 
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)  
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE  
CHANCE OF BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING  
FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS SHOULD BE LONG  
PERIOD DOMINANT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF PATCHES  
OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS  
MORNING FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...HALL  
AVIATION...KITTELL  
MARINE...KITTELL  
SYNOPSIS...HALL  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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