960
FXUS66 KLOX 172036
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
136 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/1243 PM.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP A WARMER
AND DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
17/132 PM.
THE FIRST SANTA ANA EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS ARRIVED AND IS
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY,
THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WERE NOT
AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BUT WINDS WERE ABOUT AS EXPECTED AND
SHOULD BE PEAKING TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TRENDING
ONSHORE SATURDAY AND UPPER SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY PEAKING TODAY. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN A LITTLE WARMER INLAND
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE ENDING PORTION OF A SANTA ANA AS COLD AIR
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND COOLS COASTAL AREAS BUT SO MUCH ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS. OVERALL, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF THE COASTAL
MARINE LAYER BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
17/130 PM.
MOST OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS A SMALL CONTINGENT OF SOLUTIONS THAT ADVERTISE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY CUTOFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAX, MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOT SURPRISINGLY THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY, AND THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER AND POSSIBLY SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DOES
NOT GET PICKED UP THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL (UNDER 20%) FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ASSUMING THE UPPER LOW MOVES AS EXPECTED, A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
STORM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
17/1530Z.
AT 1500Z AT KLAX, 1Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 1900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
OVERALL FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS FOR
MOST SITES AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CIG AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z.
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
TURBULENCE AND LLWS THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
KLAX...OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST AS CAVU
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 5-10%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
17/1127 AM.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY ACROSS PZZ673
AND 676. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page