868
FXUS66 KLOX 180300
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/640 PM.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP A WARMER
AND DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE. LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
17/759 PM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGION. SNOW COVER IS STILL PRESENT ON
TOP OF SOME SAN GABRIEL PEAKS OVER 7,000FT. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY FOR ALL AREAS. MOST NOTABLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SLO, WHERE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT 5PM WERE
10 TO 15 F WARMER - SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE CARRIZO PLAIN AND
ADJACENT MOUNTAIN RANGES. ALTHOUGH LESS DRASTIC THAN TODAY, THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW; WITH MOST WARMING
FOCUSED OVER SIMILAR AREAS. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE
ACROSS SANTA ANA WIND PRONE AREAS. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE UNDER 25 MPH
AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO SATURDAY AS GRADIENTS
BEGIN TO TREND ONSHORE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EXPECT TYPICAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERNS TO RESUME AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ALSO, A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY DURING THIS TRANSITION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FIRST SANTA ANA EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS ARRIVED AND IS
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY,
THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WERE NOT
AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BUT WINDS WERE ABOUT AS EXPECTED AND
SHOULD BE PEAKING TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TRENDING
ONSHORE SATURDAY AND UPPER SUPPORT IS DEFINITELY PEAKING TODAY. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN A LITTLE WARMER INLAND
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE ENDING PORTION OF A SANTA ANA AS COLD AIR
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND COOLS COASTAL AREAS BUT SO MUCH ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS. OVERALL, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF THE COASTAL
MARINE LAYER BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
17/130 PM.
MOST OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS A SMALL CONTINGENT OF SOLUTIONS THAT ADVERTISE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY CUTOFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAX, MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOT SURPRISINGLY THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY, AND THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER AND POSSIBLY SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DOES
NOT GET PICKED UP THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL (UNDER 20%) FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ASSUMING THE UPPER LOW MOVES AS EXPECTED, A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
STORM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
18/0032Z.
AT 2351Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIG AND/OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z, MOST LIKELY IN THE LIFR CATEGORY.
KLAX...OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
17/741 PM.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY ACROSS PZZ673
AND 676. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/BLACK
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/BLACK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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