806
FXUS66 KLOX 190051
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
551 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/108 PM.
VERY NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. DENSE COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. THEN A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
18/210 PM.
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE LIKELY
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TO COASTAL AREAS EITHER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, TURNING LIGHTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, WHICH IS A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG. IT'S
ALSO A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY, BY WHICH TIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
18/202 PM.
A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY START DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY BASED ON THE LAST FEW SETS OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AS
IT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OR AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY. BUT MORE THAN 50% OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE
WEDNESDAY TIMING. WHILE THERE ISN'T A TON OF MOISTURE WITH IT, THE
COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER CONSIDERABLY, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, THOUGH DEEP MARINE LAYER
WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. CLOUDS MAY
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY, LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE, AND POSSIBLE AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PRECIP.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS A BRIEF RIDGE FILLS IN. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A TROUGH WHICH IS LINING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST WILL CLIP SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH DOES NOT
APPEAR TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SOUTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
OUR AREA, ENSEMBLES ARE BULLISH ON THE CENTRAL COAST RECEIVING
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS BRING SOME PRECIPITATION ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO LA COUNTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
19/0047Z.
AT 0021Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1900 FT WITH A TEMP OF 23 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX,
AND KLGB WHERE THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF LIFR-VLIFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT FOR SITES THAT ARE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, OR VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SITES WHERE CIGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF 11-17Z SUN, OTHERWISE
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CONDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
18/127 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. ON MONDAY,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS AROUND 10 FEET ACROSS
PZZ670/673. ON TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS
A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/MW/LEWIS
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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