603
FXUS66 KLOX 190523
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1023 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
18/720 PM.
VERY NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. DENSE COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. THEN A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/811 PM.
***UPDATE***
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, OTHER
THAN A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IF THE CLOUDS
MATERIALIZE. WHILE MODELS HINT AT THIS SOLUTION, THE LOW CLOUD/FOG
COVERAGE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST WILL KEEP
THAT AREA CLEAR. GUSTS THERE ARE AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, OTHERWISE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE 4-COUNTY AREA.
ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING, SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL LOWER AROUND 3 TO 6
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MAY WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TREND TO WEAKLY ONSHORE.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
18/202 PM.
A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY START DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY BASED ON THE LAST FEW SETS OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AS
IT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OR AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY. BUT MORE THAN 50% OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE
WEDNESDAY TIMING. WHILE THERE ISN'T A TON OF MOISTURE WITH IT, THE
COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER CONSIDERABLY, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP WOULD BE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, THOUGH DEEP MARINE LAYER
WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL. CLOUDS MAY
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY, LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE, AND POSSIBLE AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES IN AREAS WITH PRECIP.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS A BRIEF RIDGE FILLS IN. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A TROUGH WHICH IS LINING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST WILL CLIP SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH DOES NOT
APPEAR TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SOUTH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
OUR AREA, ENSEMBLES ARE BULLISH ON THE CENTRAL COAST RECEIVING
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, BUT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS BRING SOME PRECIPITATION ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO LA COUNTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
19/0521Z.
AT 0444Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO 2000 FT
WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX AND KSBA. 20% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIFR CONDS AT KSBA FROM 12Z-17Z. 40% CHANCE FOR 1/4SM VSBYS
WHILE CIGS ARE PRESENT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR
TO LIFR CONDS AT KOXR AND KCMA FROM 10Z-18Z. FOR LA COASTAL TAFS,
40% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS TO ESTABLISH, BUT IF CIGS ARRIVE,
30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS. FOR KSBP, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE CONDS
REMAIN VFR, BUT IF CIGS ARRIVE, 50% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CONDS
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF CIGS ARRIVE, 30% CHANCE FOR
1/2SM TO 1SM VSBYS AND/OR OVC002 CIGS. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
18/704 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS, HOWEVER
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEAS WITH HEIGHTS NEARING 10 FEET ACROSS
PZZ670. ON MONDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FEET ACROSS PZZ670/673. ON TUESDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PZZ673/676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CILIBERTI/MW/LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/LEWIS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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