357
FXUS66 KLOX 192111
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
211 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/208 PM.
ENJOYABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DENSE COASTAL FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THEN A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SWING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
19/208 PM.
THE MARINE LAYER STRUGGLED TO MOVE INLAND PAST THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING DUE TO LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
NEUTRAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MODEL AVERAGED LAX-DAG GRADIENTS
INDICATE ABOUT A 1MB INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW, LIKELY LEADING TO
MORE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LA COAST TOMORROW MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE, BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS - WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY DUE TO
A CIRRUS DECK AT 25KFT.
A QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED 600 MILES
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
LIGHT RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON THE WINDWARD SIDE. SOME OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE LOW WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (<10% CHANCE). ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE INDICATED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS.
AS HEIGHTS & MARINE LAYER DEPTH INCREASE, EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO 15 F BELOW AVG ON WEDNESDAY.
60S TO 70S FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT IN THE 50S FOR MOUNTAINOUS
LOCATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 5,000FT.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/208 PM.
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER THE LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH REDUCED
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN LOW CLOUDS, ESP
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. CLOUD COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STILL ON PACE FOR
3 TO 6 F OF WARMING ON THURSDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 F ON
FRIDAY BRINGING MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG AN ANOMALOUS JET STREAK
IMPINGING UPON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GEFS/EPS & ECWMF-AIFS
CONTINUES THE TREND OF REDUCING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER WAVE
PATTERN. WITH LONGER WAVELENGTHS, THE STORM TRACK WOULD STAY NORTH
WITH LESS IMPACT IF THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE REALIZED.
THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINFALL IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.
THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONSISTENCY OF A RIDGE BUILDING
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES OUR REGION'S MERIDIAN.
AT THIS TIME, BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW
GOOD SIGNALING FOR BOTH N-NE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS COULD
TRANSLATE TO MODERATE WIND EVENT (MON-WED 27TH-29TH). HOWEVER, IT
IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
19/1942Z.
AT 1746Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FT DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION UP TO 2600 FT WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, AND KWJF.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, AND KVNY. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF BKN003-BKN010 CIGS BETWEEN
12Z-17Z MON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER SITES. TIMING OF CIG ARRIVAL
MAY BE OFF BY 3 HOURS TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF ALL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KCMA (30%), KOXR (20%), AND
KLGB/KLAX/KSMO (10%).
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FOR TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDS MAY
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z OR AS LATE AS 12Z AND MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT
IS LIKELY BETWEEN OVC004-010. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
FOR OVC003-OVC010 CIGS AFTER 12Z MON.
MARINE
19/208 PM.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SEAS OF 8-11 FEET INTO AT LEAST MID- WEEK, HIGHEST FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON MONDAY DUE
TO HIGH SEAS. LOCALIZED NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS, NEAR POINT CONCEPTION,
AND NEAR SAN MIGUEL AND WESTERN SANTA ROSA ISLANDS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL (40-60% CHANCE OF SCAS BEING
ISSUED). MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS REACHING THE OUTER
WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THEN LIKELY REMAINING SUB-
ADVISORY ACROSS THE INNER WATERS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...BLACK
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...BLACK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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