480
FNUS76 KLOX 210318
FWSLOX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTERO RX...CA STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
818 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PDT ON OCTOBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CONSIDERING 20FT LEVEL & TRANSPORT WINDS, THURSDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY REGARDING SMOKE DISPERSION WITH HWY-1 AND CAYUCOS IN MIND.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTED WEATHER ELEMENTS IS MODERATE FOR WEDNESDAY, AND LOW
TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY DUE TO LACK OF SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
THIS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH FUTURE UPDATES. ALTHOUGH VERY UNLIKELY, THERE IS
A 5% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY, BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG WITH DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE
IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........AROUND 58 AT IGNITION..MAX AROUND 63.
RH..................90-100% AT IGNITION..MIN 85-90% IN THE AFTERNOON
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 MPH AT IGNITION, BECOMING 5 TO 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 3,000 FT AGL AT IGNITION,
DECREASING TO NEAR 2,700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH, BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY, BECOMING SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........AROUND 55 AT IGNITION..MAX AROUND 61.
RH..................90-100% AT IGNITION..MIN 85-90% IN THE AFTERNOON
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH, SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT
3 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH, SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION, BECOMING AROUND
2,100 FT AGL MID-DAY, THEN DECREASING TO 1,500 FT
AGL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...BLACK
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL WALGREN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2524053.0/LOX
.DELDT 10/21/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MIKE.WALGREN@PARKS.CA.GOV
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