124
FXUS66 KLOX 220958
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
258 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
21/129 PM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND MAY CREATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL. DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING RETURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
22/245 AM.
FAIRLY UNUSUAL WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY COURTESY OF A 567 DAM
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTER FCST TO MOVE OVER THE NRN HALF OF
SBA/VTA/LA COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. THE LOW BROUGHT A BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER LA AND VTA COUNTIES LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP WAS VIRGA. CURRENTLY IT IS ADVECTING ANOTHER BAND OF PVA
OVER SBA AND SLO COUNTIES. AGAIN MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHC THAT ONE
OF THESE SHOWER COULD PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THE CHC
OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY STARTING OFF
MOSTLY IN THE WEST (SLO/SBA COUNTIES) AND THEN MOVING INTO VTA/LA
COUNTIES LATER IN THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DRY LIGHTNING AS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY MINIMAL. THE LIFT FROM THE LOW WAS FORECAST TO BRING A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND WHILE THIS HAS MOSTLY
OCCURRED ACROSS SLO/SBA/VTA COUNTIES LA COUNTY REMAINS MOSTLY
FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL LIKELY
GENERATE THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LA COUNTY MTNS BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHC THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE FALLING HGTS AND SWITCH TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE TO KNOCK OFF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THE
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE VLYS/MTNS/FAR INTERIOR. THE CSTS WILL SEE
MUCH LESS COOLING AND THE CENTRAL COAST MAY EVEN WARM A BIT.
DECENT NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW SETS UP. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH I-5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VLY FOOTHILLS. SLIGHTLY
LESS STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND GUSTS WILL COME IN JUST
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.
A RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE RISING
HGTS AND NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL JOIN UP TO BRING 4 TO 8
DEGREES OF WARMING TO ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
CANYON WINDS AND TO SCARE OFF THE MARINE LAYER, BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE AND HGTS WILL RISE TO 584 DAM. NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST AS WELL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 DEGREE OF
WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL END UP IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE CSTS AND IN THE 80S IN THE VLYS.
WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST OF LA COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT ALONG WITH WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW, CREATING A RAPID WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S IN THE
VALLEYS AND DOWNTOWN LA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND 70S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT THE BEACHES NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
22/258 AM.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS A TROF DRIVES
THROUGH THE PACNW AND SETS UP NW FLOW OVER THE STATE. AT ONE POINT
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WAS FCST TO BRING SOME RAIN TO SLO/SBA
COUNTIES BUT THAT IDEA HAD PASSED AND NOW ALL THAT IS EXPECTED IS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT
OVERHEAD. ALSO A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING BACK SOME
MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS. LOWERING HGTS AND A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY TO MOST
AREAS.
THE CHANGE OF SEASONS IS QUITE APPARENT AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES MUCH MORE CHANGEABLE.
A RIDGE, FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE TROF WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS. THERE IS NOT MUCH (IF ANY) UPPER OR
THERMAL SUPPORT SO ITS LIKELY THAT THE GUSTS WILL NOT REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE OFFSHORE PUSH SHOULD ELIMINATE THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUD THREAT, THE RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE PUSH FROM THE
NORTH WILL ALSO BRING 1 TO 3 DEGREES OF WARMING.
THE EC FAVORS A SANTA ANA PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH ABOUT 5 MB OF
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE E AND N (STILL NO UPPER LEVEL OR
THERMAL SUPPORT). THE GFS FAVORS A MORE NORTHERLY WIND EVENT. MOST
ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS THE NORTHERLY WIND EVENT SOLUTION. OFFSHORE
FLOW, RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF
WARMING TO MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS WARMING THEM UP TO 2 TO 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
22/0558Z.
AT 0507Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1300 FEET. THERE WAS
AN INVERSION AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C, WITH A
SECONDARY INVERSION AT 4400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD. -SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
AS LATE AS 10Z, BUT FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX AND KSBP. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING TIMES MAY BE OFF
+/- 2 HOURS AND RETURN MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS, HIGHEST FOR LA
COUNTY SITES. CLEARING TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND RETURN
MAY BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR -SHRA AT ANY SITE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z, BUT CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OVC008-020 EXPECTED THROUGH WED
MORNING, BUT RETURN COULD BE ANY TIME FROM NOW THROUGH 10Z. THERE
IS A 25% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS TO ESTABLISH. OTHERWISE, LOW
CLOUDS MAY SCT RANDOMLY AT TIMES. CLEARING TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS AND RETURN WED NIGHT +/- 4 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING, BUT THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE BETWEEN 07Z-17Z THURSDAY.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVC006-020 MAY SCT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CLEARING MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND RETURN MAY BE
OFF +/- 4 HOURS.
MARINE
22/224 AM.
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 10-14 FOOT
SEAS TO THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 10
FEET, SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA'S) GOING. A
RELATIVE LULL IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SCAS TO BE
EXTENDED DUE TO WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUOUSLY EXCEEDING ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. A LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
NORTHERN INNER WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, INCLUDING THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND
ORANGE COUNTIES. CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES (4-6 FEET) WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INNER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT
HOURS. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL UNTIL INCREASING TO
5-7 FEET (HIGHEST IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTER WATERS AND POTENTIALLY THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY DROP BELOW 20
KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
LARGE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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