383
FXUS66 KLOX 222058
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
158 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/111 PM.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
22/135 PM.
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. SOME INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY ARE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SPAWN SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, AND
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (20-30%) IN VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A RETURN TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER, ESPECIALLY INLAND AS GRADIENTS GO FROM
5MB ONSHORE TO LIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND A QUICK POP UP HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEVELOPS. BY FRIDAY THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND COASTAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS A RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE THE COOLING TREND ALONG WITH A LIKELY RETURN OF THE
COASTAL MARINE LAYER.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
22/157 PM.
THE SATURDAY COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO
HIGHS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST IT WILL GENERATE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A HIGH
PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE REGION, AND THIS JIVES WELL WITH THE
FORECAST GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 5MB FROM THE NORTH.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NUMBER
OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATING A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT HAVE
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY AS MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FAVORING
A STRONGER HIGH DEVELOPING RATHER THAN A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SANTA ANA WINDS ARE NOW
QUITE LOW, THE STRONG HIGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY
FLOW AS WELL AS WEAK OFFSHORE TO THE EAST GIVES INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WORLD SERIES IN LOS ANGELES, VALLEY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. PREPARE ACCORDINGLY FOR TEMPERATURES
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
22/1120Z.
AT 0721Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS 1400 FEET. THERE WAS
AN INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C, WITH
MULTIPLE INVERSIONS ABOVE IT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSBP, KOXR, KCMA. CLEARING
TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND RETURN MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS FOR
KSMX AND KSBA. 20% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AFTER 18Z AT
KSMX AND KSBP.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSBA
(30%), KBUR (20%), AND KBUR (25%) THROUGH 18Z. 30-40% CHANCE FOR
NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB. CLEARING TIMES MAY
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND RETURN MAY BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR -SHRA AND OR -TSRA AT ANY SITE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEARING TIMES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND
RETURN OF LOW CLOUD TONIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS. 15% CHANCE FOR
-SHRA OR -TSRA ANY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED THRU THIS MORNING
MORNING, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 07Z-17Z
THURSDAY.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 25% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH
18Z. 15% CHANCE FOR -SHRA OR -TSRA ANY FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
22/1257 PM.
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) 10+ FOOT SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO THE WATERS
BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, THEN LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABNORMALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS BRINGING SCA WINDS
20-30 KNOTS AND CHOPPY SEAS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATER TODAY, INCLUDING ALL OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
DOWN TO SAN PEDRO. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, BUT RETURNING TO A MORE
TRADITIONAL COVERAGE AREA (CENTRAL COAST TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
INCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 650-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RK/RM
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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