946
FXUS66 KLOX 230624
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1124 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/111 PM.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
22/849 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY SAW DRAMATICALLY COOLER TEMPERATURE DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW, THE REGION IS SEEING AREAS OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND
WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER
IS STRUGGLING TO REFORM SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HOWEVER BY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
LA BASIN.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. SOME INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY ARE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SPAWN SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, AND
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (20-30%) IN VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A RETURN TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER, ESPECIALLY INLAND AS GRADIENTS GO FROM
5MB ONSHORE TO LIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND A QUICK POP UP HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEVELOPS. BY FRIDAY THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND COASTAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS A RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE THE COOLING TREND ALONG WITH A LIKELY RETURN OF THE
COASTAL MARINE LAYER.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
22/157 PM.
THE SATURDAY COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO
HIGHS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST IT WILL GENERATE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A HIGH
PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE REGION, AND THIS JIVES WELL WITH THE
FORECAST GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 5MB FROM THE NORTH.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NUMBER
OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATING A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT HAVE
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY AS MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FAVORING
A STRONGER HIGH DEVELOPING RATHER THAN A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SANTA ANA WINDS ARE NOW
QUITE LOW, THE STRONG HIGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY
FLOW AS WELL AS WEAK OFFSHORE TO THE EAST GIVES INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WORLD SERIES IN LOS ANGELES, VALLEY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. PREPARE ACCORDINGLY FOR TEMPERATURES
10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
23/0624Z.
AT 0530Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER UP TO 5000 FEET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERUPTING THE MARINE LAYER AND INVERSION. CLOUDS
MAY RANDOMLY SCATTER AND REFORM OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR
TO LIFR AT TIMES FOR KPRB, KSMX AND KSBP. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF NO CIGS AT L.A. COUNTY TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 30% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS. CIGS
COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 08Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
08Z-17Z THURSDAY, BUT EAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE
BELOW 8 KTS.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND ANY CIGS THAT FORM MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.
MARINE
22/1029 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) 10+ FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE, POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME THURSDAY FOR
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE. SEAS SHOULD RISE AGAIN TO
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INCLUDING
ALL OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL DOWN TO SAN PEDRO ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND DOWN TONIGHT AS SCA LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FURTHER WEST. THERE IS
A 40% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS FOR THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS BUT
RETURNING TO A MORE TRADITIONAL COVERAGE AREA (CENTRAL COAST TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
INCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...PHILLIPS/RK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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