856
FXUS66 KLOX 231240
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
540 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/111 PM.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
23/217 AM.
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY/FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA,
BUT ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NOTICEABLY AS A TROUGH ROLLS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST WITH NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SO,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE USUAL AREAS (SANTA YNEZ
RANGE, INTERIOR SBA MOUNTAINS AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR). BASED ON
CURRENT REPORTED WINDS, THERE WILL BE A 30-40% CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE UPTICK IN THE GRADIENTS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS RELAX AND ANY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY, THE WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
GRADIENTS, BUT WINDS ANYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
AS FOR CLOUDS, TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE LOWERING
H5 HEIGHTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND TODAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH WEAK GRADIENTS, LIMITED MARINE INFLUENCE AND
RISING THICKNESSES. IN FACT BY FRIDAY, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ON SATURDAY, ALL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
23/217 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PREVAIL NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THIS PATTERN, THE AREA IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT MODERATE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL AREAS
(I-5 CORRIDOR, SANTA YNEZ RANGE, ETC.) WITH EVEN A LOW POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
23/1240Z.
AT 1218Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER UP TO 5000 FEET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF, KPMD, KBUR, AND KVNY.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERUPTING THE MARINE LAYER AND INVERSION. CLOUDS
MAY RANDOMLY SCATTER AND REFORM THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SITES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT COASTAL SITES AFTER 06Z FRI.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
FOR A RANDOM BRIEF BKN008 CIG TO FORM THIS MORNING. THEN THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE OF BKN004-BKN008 CONDS AFTER 06Z FRI. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY, BUT EAST WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 8 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
23/213 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) 10+ FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE, FALLING BELOW 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20
MILES FROM SHORE. SEAS SHOULD RISE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS SEAS START TO SUBSIDE TODAY, SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EXPANDING
INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, THEN THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LUND/PHILLIPS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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