907
FXUS66 KLOX 231647
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
23/939 AM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
23/946 AM.
VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REPLACES THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MODEST WARMING TREND TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND
COOLS THINGS OFF A BIT. MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BUT THOSE SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
23/217 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PREVAIL NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THIS PATTERN, THE AREA IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT MODERATE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL AREAS
(I-5 CORRIDOR, SANTA YNEZ RANGE, ETC.) WITH EVEN A LOW POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
23/1240Z.
AT 1218Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER UP TO 5000 FEET.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF, KPMD, KBUR, AND KVNY.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERUPTING THE MARINE LAYER AND INVERSION. CLOUDS
MAY RANDOMLY SCATTER AND REFORM THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SITES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT COASTAL SITES AFTER 06Z FRI.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
FOR A RANDOM BRIEF BKN008 CIG TO FORM THIS MORNING. THEN THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE OF BKN004-BKN008 CONDS AFTER 06Z FRI. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY, BUT EAST WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 8 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
23/741 AM.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY NEAR OR UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS
(10+ FOOT), AND SHOULD RISE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AS SEAS START TO SUBSIDE TODAY, SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, THEN THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND INCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LUND/PHILLIPS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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