562
FXUS66 KLOX 231726
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1026 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
23/939 AM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
23/946 AM.
VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REPLACES THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MODEST WARMING TREND TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND
COOLS THINGS OFF A BIT. MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BUT THOSE SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
23/217 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PREVAIL NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THIS PATTERN, THE AREA IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT MODERATE
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL AREAS
(I-5 CORRIDOR, SANTA YNEZ RANGE, ETC.) WITH EVEN A LOW POSSIBILITY
OF SOME WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
SECONDARY CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
23/1726Z.
AT 1638Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3800 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND BY ONE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
MOST UNCERTAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR KSMX WHICH HAS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 15Z FRI. IF OCCURS, IT
COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE. THERE IS ALSO A 25% CHANCE THAT
CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z TO 18Z FRI. 15% CHC OF IFR
OR EVEN LOW-MVFR CONDS AT KSBA/KOXR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW-END MVFR 010-015 OR EVEN
HIGH-END IFR >008 POSSIBLE FROM 10Z TO 16Z FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT
EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/741 AM.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY NEAR OR UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS
(10+ FOOT), AND SHOULD RISE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AS SEAS START TO SUBSIDE TODAY, SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, THEN THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND INCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LUND/PHILLIPS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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