990
FXUS66 KLOX 232050
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
23/118 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
23/137 PM.
VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REPLACES THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MODEST WARMING TREND TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COOLS THINGS OFF A BIT. MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT THOSE SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT PARTICULARLY
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (SUNDOWNERS), THE COASTAL WATERS,
AND PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGE, ESPECIALLY THE GRAPEVINE
REGION. AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE WIND ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS AND A
10-20% CHANCE OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WILL WARM AROUND 5
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SOME OF THOSE WINDS WILL SURFACE
DOWN INTO SOME OF THE LA VALLEYS, SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND
POSSIBLY THE SANTA MONICA BAY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST LA.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
23/150 PM.
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS START TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT AS THAT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
500 HEIGHTS OF AROUND 591DAM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3MB. CHANCES
FOR ANY SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT THE CHANCES FOR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS DURING
WORLD SERIES WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE 80S IN MOST
AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT AT BEACHES AND WELL INTO THE 90S IN SOME OF THE
WARMER VALLEYS. THERE IS EVEN ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF HIGHS NEAR
100 IN PARTS OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND LOW 90S IN DOWNTOWN
LA, WHICH WOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
23/1726Z.
AT 1638Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3800 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND BY ONE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
MOST UNCERTAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR KSMX WHICH HAS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 15Z FRI. IF OCCURS, IT
COULD BE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE. THERE IS ALSO A 25% CHANCE THAT
CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z TO 18Z FRI. 15% CHC OF IFR
OR EVEN LOW-MVFR CONDS AT KSBA/KOXR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW-END MVFR 010-015 OR EVEN
HIGH-END IFR >008 POSSIBLE FROM 10Z TO 16Z FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT
EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/741 AM.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY NEAR OR UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS
(10+ FOOT), AND SHOULD RISE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AS SEAS START TO SUBSIDE TODAY, SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, THEN THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND INCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LUND/PHILLIPS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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