764
FXUS66 KLOX 240123
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
623 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
23/118 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. THEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
23/137 PM.
VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REPLACES THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MODEST WARMING TREND TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COOLS THINGS OFF A BIT. MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BUT THOSE SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT PARTICULARLY
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (SUNDOWNERS), THE COASTAL WATERS,
AND PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGE, ESPECIALLY THE GRAPEVINE
REGION. AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE WIND ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS AND A
10-20% CHANCE OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WILL WARM AROUND 5
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SOME OF THOSE WINDS WILL SURFACE
DOWN INTO SOME OF THE LA VALLEYS, SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND
POSSIBLY THE SANTA MONICA BAY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST LA.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
23/150 PM.
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS START TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT AS THAT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
500 HEIGHTS OF AROUND 591DAM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3MB. CHANCES
FOR ANY SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT THE CHANCES FOR VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS DURING
WORLD SERIES WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST IN THE 80S IN MOST
AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT AT BEACHES AND WELL INTO THE 90S IN SOME OF THE
WARMER VALLEYS. THERE IS EVEN ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF HIGHS NEAR
100 IN PARTS OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND LOW 90S IN DOWNTOWN
LA, WHICH WOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
24/0047Z.
AT 2330Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR THE DESERT AND VALLEY TAFS, AND
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TAF SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT KSBP WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 09Z TO 16Z. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIFR
CONDS FORECAST FOR KSMX AND KSBA, IFR CONDS FOR THE VENTURA
SITES, AND IFR TO MVFR FOR THE LA COASTAL SITES. THE TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND BY ONE FLIGHT
CATEGORY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW-END MVFR 010-015
TO HIGH-END IFR >008 FORECAST FROM 08Z TO 17Z FRI, BUT THE TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
23/510 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND - THIS AREA HAS A 30% CHC OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON SUNDAY &
MONDAY. MODERATE CHC FOR SCA WINDS ACROSS SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - SUNDAY IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
PORTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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