773
FXUS66 KLOX 061726
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
926 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
06/914 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW PATTERN SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE RAIN.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
06/925 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL A QUIET DAY TODAY BUT AS MENTIONED BELOW
NORTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SANTA LUCIAS.
MAY ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I5 CORRIDOR
REGION AS WELL TONIGHT. SOME OF THOSE WINDS WILL FILTER DOWN INTO
THE LA/VENTURA VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
GETTING INTO THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST, AND A NORTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, MEANWHILE RIDGING ALOFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL BRING GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS EVENING
AND MAYBE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, BUT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
REISSUED, EXTENDED, OR EXPANDED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE GRADIENT WILL LINGER. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT THE
WINDS TURN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY.
WHILE LESS CERTAIN, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. NAM MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES GUSTY WINDS FOR KSDB, WHILE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE
BOUNDARY LAYER, 950 MB, AND 850 MB WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE BROADER ZONE. EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
NAM-WRF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND KEEP ALL THE
GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE DECISION FOR A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WAS TABLED FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
DATA IN SUPPORT.
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN MORE OFFSHORE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N AND 137W
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE A COLD AIR
MASS REMAINS IN THE GREAT BASIN. AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL
START TO DEVELOP FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY AS GUSTY SANTA LUCIA WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS ADVISORY COULD
BE EXPANDED INTO THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY,
BUT THE FORECAST WAITS FOR A LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY ON THE WINDS.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARMING TREND
WILL TURN SHARPER ON FRIDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES BENEATH
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE TO LEVELS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S BEING COMMON
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
06/305 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY, WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE STRETCH COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 500 MB HEIGHT MEANS CLIMBING INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT TEMPERATURE VALUES, BUT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHT RISES WOULD STRONGLY
LEAN TOWARD EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE LATEST NAM-WRF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A NEW WRINKLE
OF A LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY HAVE ABOUT A TENTH OF
THE MEMBER SOLUTIONS WITH WINDS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AT KCMA.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR AS PROGGED THIS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND DRIVE HEAT RISK VALUES INTO
MARGINAL CATEGORIES FOR HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. IN
ADDITION, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE SOME,
ESPECIALLY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IN
ADVANCE OF SANTA ANA WIND EVENT.
RAIN COULD BE IN OUR FUTURE FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FORECAST ENSEMBLES CANNOT AGREE YET ON EXACT DETAILS, BUT THERE
REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
REGION AND BRING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. SOME CONSOLIDATION IS OCCURRING IN THE TIMING
WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLES. MOST HAVE THE WET WEATHER BEGINNING
EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE RAIN, THERE ARE STILL A SMALL AMOUNT OF OUTLIER
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD END UP VERIFYING AND KEEP THE AREA DRY.
THE FORECAST GOES WITH NBM VALUES FOR THE CURRENT TIME AND
ADVERTISES RAIN LIKELY BY NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
06/1700Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 5200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KVNY, KBUR, KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL SITES AS WELL AS KPRB DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WITH A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
06/716 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
OUTER WATERS AND CENTRAL COAST NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL PEAK
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AROUND 16 FT TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN LARGE INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CALM SEAS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN AN AREA FROM POINT CONCEPTION
SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND WESTWARD 40 NM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE MORNING, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS AROUND 10 FEET ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES
AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION TO HAZARDOUS SEAS, W-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SB CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING FRIDAY AND
BECOMING RELATIVELY CALM BY SATURDAY.
TODAY AND FRIDAY, LARGE TIDAL SWINGS BETWEEN MORNING HIGH TIDE
AND AFTERNOON LOW TIDES (7-8 FT CHANGES) WILL CAUSE STRONG
CURRENTS NEARSHORE. THE LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH
THE HIGH TIDES WILL CREATE BREAKING WAVES AT MORRO BAY HARBOR AND
POSSIBLY VENTURA HARBOR.
BEACHES
06/331 AM.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES, AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL.
PEAK SURF HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINE UP WITH TODAY'S HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, ALTHOUGH SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE
ABNORMALLY LARGE THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
REFER TO THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONE 342. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/HALL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...BLACK/RAT
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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