541
FXUS66 KLOX 070544
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
944 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
06/527 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW PATTERN
SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
06/823 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY SAW SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. WITH A
WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE THIS COOL AGAIN UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PICKING UP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
TO INCLUDE THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO, SANTA
BARBARA, AND VENTURA COUNTIES, AND THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LA
COUNTY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO TREND WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GRADIENTS SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE. MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WERE 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER WHILE THE MARINE LAYER KEPT THE BEACHES COOLER.
TONIGHT A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL CREATE 30-45 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA AND TRANSVERSE RANGES AND FILTERING DOWN
INTO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE LA/VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
WITH THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP 4-8 DEGREES FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF SANTA BARBARA AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR OF SLO COUNTY EXTENDING INTO THE CUYAMA
VALLEY.
BY SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO A SANTA ANA
PATTERN AS WINDS ALOFT PICK UP A MORE OF A EASTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS PATTERN STILL FAVORS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIAS BUT
ALSO BEGINS TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF LA/VENTURA VALLEYS THAT ARE
NEAR THE BORDER OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. PROBABLY NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORIES YET BUT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES
OVER FRIDAY'S LEVELS.
THE AREA WILL BE FULLY TRANSITIONED TO A SANTA ANA PATTERN BY
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-40 MPH IN THE USUAL FAVORED
AREAS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. UNLESS THERE IS A BIG SWING DOWNWARD IN THE MODELS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED SUNDAY (AND MONDAY TOO) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS FOR THE DAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS THE
LATEST MODELS SHOW AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF -5.5 MB,
THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT BEST SO CHANCES OF WIND
ADVISORIES ARE LOWER.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
06/218 PM.
ANOTHER HOT SANTA ANA DAY MONDAY, POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER THAN
SUNDAY WITH MORE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS POSSIBLE.
A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO 5-15 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS
WHILE FAR INTERIOR AREAS SEE LITTLE CHANGE. THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MARINE LAYER
RETURN TO COAST AND VALLEYS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A HUGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES AND TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A MODERATE STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING IN THE MODELS RANGES ANYWHERE FROM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AS LATE AS SATURDAY. AND THERE ARE
STILL ABOUT 10% OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS, THAT KEEP ALL RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOCAL.
AVIATION
07/0542Z.
AT 0455Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS, WITH FLIGHT CATS OFF BY
ONE OR TWO WHEN CIGS ARE PRESENT. LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. KSBP HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE
ISSUE THROUGH 18Z FRI AND AGAIN AFTER 00Z SAT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. PERIODS OF SCT-BKN008
COVERAGE THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRI. THEN, BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR MORE
UNIFORM IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z FRI. 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS FROM 10Z
TO 16Z FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED THROUGH
06Z SAT, THEN LOW CHANCE (15%) REACHING 7-8 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
VERY LOW CHANCE (5%) OF LIFR CIGS FROM 10Z TO 16Z FRI.
MARINE
06/804 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
SATURDAY, A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS (PEAKING 12-16 FEET) WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY, LOCAL
GUSTS OF 35 KT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT, AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, A COMBINATION OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH FRIDAY, LARGE TIDAL SWINGS BETWEEN MORNING HIGH TIDE AND
AFTERNOON LOW TIDES (7-8 FT CHANGES) WILL CAUSE STRONG CURRENTS
NEARSHORE. THE LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
TIDES WILL CREATE BREAKING WAVES AT MORRO BAY HARBOR AND POSSIBLY
VENTURA HARBOR.
BEACHES
06/805 PM.
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES, AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO LAXCFWLOX AND LAXSRFLOX FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 342-345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RAT/CC
BEACHES...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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