517
FXUS66 KLOX 071757
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
957 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
07/201 AM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 80S AND 90S BEING COMMON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE REGION
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
07/835 AM.
***UPDATE***
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TWO MAIN ISSUES ARE THE WINDS AND
MARINE LAYER STRATUS.
CURRENTLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS, GUSTING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-55 MPH, ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON, THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS GOES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN. FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY, THE WIND ADVISORIES END AT 1100 AM, BUT WILL EITHER
EXTEND THEM THROUGH TONIGHT OR LET THEM EXPIRE AND POSSIBLY REISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DECISIONS WILL BE MADE THROUGH THE DAY.
SECOND ISSUE IS THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. STRATUS/FOG IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LAX BASIN AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VALLEY.
DENSE FOG IS REPORTED ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL/SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM. AS THE
STRATUS/FOG DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING, WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 900 AM.
OVERALL, WILL BE SOME UPDATES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND WINDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N AND 133W
AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST. SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS
WEDGED IN. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE SPILLING OVER INTO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS THE CUYAMA AND CALIFORNIA
VALLEYS AND OUT ON THE CARRIZO PLAIN.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. MT.
LOWE IS GUSTING TO 55 MPH CURRENTLY, AND SANDBERG HIT 54 MPH
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT, BUT A FEW GUSTS INTO 45 TO 50 MPH WERE
OBSERVED LAST EVENING. WIND HEADLINES WERE TWEAKED TO KEEP THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN AN ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
WINDS WILL RETREAT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY THEN
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NEED TO REISSUED AND/OR EXTENDED INTO
THE COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA LUCIA
RANGE THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING. AS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REACH
DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA LUCIA
RANGE, THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REISSUED FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
PORTION.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN, A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WILL TURN HOTTER OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH 80S TO MID 90S BEING COMMON ACROSS COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED STARTING SUNDAY AS HEAT RISK VALUES CLIMB. WHILE DAYTIME
RECORD HIGHS ARE WARMER FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
RECORD VALUES COULD BE TIED IN SOME SPOTS.
THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE SUGGEST A LOW-END ADVISORY
LEVEL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE USUAL SANTA ANA
WIND CORRIDOR BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS EVENT
AND SUGGEST THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS TO BE AN OUTLIER, HIGHER
RESOLUTION SREF AND REFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO FALL
INLINE WITH THE IDEA OF ADVISORY LEVELS WIND DEVELOPING. EARLY
FRAMES OF THE 00Z REFS SOLUTIONS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE IDEAS
PRESENTED BY THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION, NCEP SREF MEMBER
MEANS ADVERTISE -6 MB KLAX-KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON
SUNDAY MORNING, STRONGER THAN THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC NAM-WRF
GRADIENT OF -4.4 MB. STAY TUNED AS THIS WRINKLE WILL HOPEFULLY GET
IRONED OUT HERE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
07/357 AM.
ANOTHER HOT SANTA ANA DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY, POTENTIALLY SETTING
RECORDS AS THE RECORD HIGH VALUES ARE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST KLAX-KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS NEAR -6 MB
AGAIN, BUT WITH LESS WIND SUPPORT ALOFT, IT COULD END UP ONLY
BEING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY.
THE FLOW REGIME WILL CHANGE BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE. A
COOLING TREND SHOULD BEGIN FOR TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER, DENSE FOG ISSUES COULD DEVELOP.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN (FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA) TO
HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN CONTINUES TO BUMP TO A LATER
TIME. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A MODERATE STORM IMPACTING THE
AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
THE TIMING IN THE MODELS RANGES ANYWHERE FROM AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY TO AS LATE AS THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY. FOR NOW, NBM VALUES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR POPS, BUT TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED TO
MATCH TIME PERIODS FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION
07/1756Z.
AT 1649Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, AND
KLGB. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR VLIFR-LIFR CONDS AT KPRB 10Z-17Z.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NE WINDS 10-20 KTS TO SURFACE AT KSBP
BETWEEN 06Z-18Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, AND KVNY. THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
AT KOXR, KBUR, AND KVNY.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER & NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
FROM 06Z TO 12Z. THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSBP
AND KSMX.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT. 30% CHANCE FOR OVC002-OVC004 CIGS WITH 1-2SM VSBYS.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 4 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7-8 KTS.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 40% CHANCE FOR VV001-OVC004 WITH
VSBYS 1/4SM-2SM 10Z-17Z.
LEWIS
MARINE
07/840 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS (UP TO 16 FEET) FROM A
MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND WINDS (20-30 KNOTS)
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND CENTRAL COAST NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS (34-38 KNOTS) MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING SATURDAY, THEN REMAINING RELATIVELY CALM
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF NW TO W WINDS REACHING 20-25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LINGER BETWEEN 5-7
FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY CALM SEAS
INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
07/209 AM.
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES, AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO LAXCFWLOX AND LAXSRFLOX FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 342-345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 351-352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...HALL/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...RAT/CC/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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