844
FXUS66 KLOX 080558
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
958 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
07/800 PM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 80S AND 90S BEING COMMON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE REGION
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
07/826 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY WAS NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MANY AREAS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WARMING IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AS THE REGION HEADS INTO A SANTA ANA
WIND AND RIDING PATTERN. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS, THE EASTERN SANTA SUSANA
MOUNTAINS, AND THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS, AND
THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY REACH SOME FOOTHILL AND VALLEY AREAS (SUCH
AS MONTECITO HILLS, SIMI VALLEY, SAN LUIS OBISPO, AND MORRO BAY).
ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THESES
LOCATIONS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, PEAKING
IN STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, TWO MAIN ISSUES ARE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE NORTHEAST GRADIENTS INCREASE. WITH THE NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, LIKELY
REACHING ADVISORY-LEVELS TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE). SO, WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH 10 PM FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND 300 AM FOR THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE. AS THE GRADIENTS TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE FOCUS OF THE WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE USUAL SANTA ANA AREAS OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE (IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY). LAX-DAG GRADIENTS
LOOK TO PEAK IN THE -4.5 TO -5.5 MB RANGE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
TOP OUT AROUND 25-35 KNOTS. SO, WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKING AT HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS. SO, WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR THESE
SANTA ANA WINDS RIGHT NOW, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
THE SECOND ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON QUITE THE UPSWING THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY, MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
IN BREEZY AREAS. AT THIS TIME, THERE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 30%
CHANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS BEING REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR. SO, WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEAT PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHER THAN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES, NO ISSUE ARE EXPECTED. OTHER
THAN SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAX BASIN,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
07/126 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH DISAGREEING IN THE DETAILS,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD, AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. SO, WILL EXPECT A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND, A RETURN OF
ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND FOG.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS INDICATE WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER, BUT DIFFER NOTICEABLY IN THE DETAILS. THE GFS SWEEPS THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS THE
UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD, KEEPING IT OFFSHORE OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. SO, EITHER SOLUTION BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS VARY DRAMATICALLY.
ENSEMBLES DO NOT OFFER MUCH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, STRESSING THE
SAME DIFFERENCES AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO, CURRENT NBM
POPS LOOK GOOD, WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE VERY MUCH IN QUESTIONS,
RANGING FROM MINOR TO SIGNIFICANT. OVER THE COMING DAYS, THE
MODELS SHOULD COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AND DETAILS CAN BE
GREATLY FINED-TUNED. ESSENTIALLY, BE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
AVIATION
08/0557Z.
AT 0500Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, WITH FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY
ONE CATEGORY. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR V/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB
FROM 10Z-16Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS TO SURFACE AT KSBP THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER & NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE
KSBP AND KSMX.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE VSBYS OF
<1SM, 15% CHANCE OF 1/2SM, & 15% CHANCE OF
21Z TO 03Z SUNDAY - LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. EAST WIND COMP
MAY REACH 7-8 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, THEN NO ISSUES
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT VV001-OVC004
WITH VSBYS 1/4SM-2SM FROM 11Z-16Z SAT DO NOT ARRIVE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SAT.
MARINE
07/803 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUING TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS (10 TO 12 FEET) THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS, BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN HEIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED GALE FORCE
GUSTS (34-38 KNOTS) SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
REMAINING RELATIVELY CALM INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LINGER BETWEEN 5-7 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY CALM SEAS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
BEACHES
07/140 PM.
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
(SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY) HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ALTHOUGH SURF WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO LATE TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9AM
AND 12PM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE CFWLOX AND SRFLOX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 351-352-375-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/CC
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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