438
FXUS66 KLOX 081155
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
08/103 AM.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES BENEATH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 80S AND 90S BEING COMMON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE REGION
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
08/337 AM.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND ARE THE MAIN CHARACTERS OF THE WEATHER STORY
FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY, AND
PEAK IN STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD STARTING TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MOSTLY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
BUT THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY, WHILE THE
EAST-WEST GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO MORE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. N-NE WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING ACROSS THE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDOR, WHILE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO
45 MPH, ARE PREVALENT OVER THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS ON THE
CENTRAL COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ AND I-5 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY, THOUGH LIKELY UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE ESPECIALLY AS THE
GRADIENTS WILL BE 2.5 TO 3.5 MB WEAKER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER THE
USUAL SANTA ANA WIND AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES,
AS WELL AS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ISN'T ESPECIALLY STRONG, AND THE LAX-DAG GRADIENTS LOOK TO REACH
AROUND -4 TO -5 MB, SO THIS EVENT WILL BE ON THE WEAK TO BARELY
MODERATE SIDE OF THINGS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAYBE 1 OR 2
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT MOST, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING (WITH
ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING) PAIRED WITH OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE COASTS SPANNING THE 70S, AND THE INTERIOR AREAS IN THE
80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH MOST FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY AREAS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON IF ADVISORIES
ARE NEEDED.
LAST TO BE TALKED ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM, ARE THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS EXPANSIVE AS THE
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IF THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE SLOW TO KICK IN TONIGHT,
AND/OR ARE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK BACK
IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT, AND DENSE FOG WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY. THE NBM SUGGEST THIS OUTCOME, AND GIVEN HOW THE
GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED,
ALLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE NBM FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
OFFSHORE FLOW AND HEAT SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AWAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
08/354 AM.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
TUESDAY, BUT STARTING WEDNESDAY THINGS START TO DIFFER. WHAT THEY
DO AGREE ON, HOWEVER, IS THAT RAIN IS COMING TO SOCAL SOMETIME
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND WITH A
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND
FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS NOW SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOCAL FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH THE
DETAILS OF PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, THE TIMING, AND AMOUNTS STILL
DIFFER. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE NBM STARTS TO BRING RAIN IN
STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE EC AND GFS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINLY START THE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EC DETERMINISTIC SUGGESTS THAT
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING, AND
ANOTHER BLIP OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT RAIN BEING
MORE SPREAD OUT AND CARRYING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
AMOUNTS, THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION AS WELL, AS THE
GFS BRINGS THE LOW MORE OVER THE OCEAN, AND THE EC MOVING MORE
OVER LAND. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAIN TO HAVE WIDESPREAD OUTCOMES
FROM EACH MEMBER TO ANOTHER. SO, CURRENT NBM POPS LOOK GOOD
(THOUGH MAYBE 12 HOURS TOO EARLY), WITH LIKELY/CHANCE POPS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE VERY MUCH IN
QUESTIONS, RANGING FROM MINOR TO SIGNIFICANT. OVER THE COMING
DAYS, THE MODELS SHOULD COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AND DETAILS CAN
BE GREATLY FINED-TUNED. ESSENTIALLY, BE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
AVIATION
08/1101Z.
AT 0948Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS, WITH FLIGHT MINIMUMS OFF BY
ONE CATEGORY. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR V/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB
THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS TO SURFACE AT KSBP THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER & NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
ARE KSBP AND KSMX. THEN AGAIN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY BUT FOCUSED ACROSS
INTERIOR LA & VENTURA COUNTIES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE VSBYS OF
<1SM, 10% CHANCE OF 1/2SM, & 10% CHANCE OF
FROM 21Z TO 03Z SUNDAY - LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS BELOW 7-8 KTS.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20% CHANCE THAT VV001-OVC002 WITH
VSBYS 1/4SM-2SM ARRIVE THROUGH 16Z SAT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
08/302 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUING TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS (10 TO 12 FEET) THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN HEIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING RELATIVELY CALM INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCA CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AFTER WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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